New Delhi, April 29 As the exit polls started pouring in following the conclusion of Assembly polls in five states and a UT, Axis My India Ltd Chairman and Managing Director Pradeep Gupta observed that a major section of voters in West Bengal simply refused to even acknowledge questions regarding the elections in the state, citing the fear of poll violence as the reason.
Speaking to IANS, the pollster underlined that the major challenge of his election analysis was in West Bengal, where people were totally unwilling to speak about the elections.
"In West Bengal, after the first phase of voting, the team -- including myself -- observed that while we cannot strictly call it a 'silent' voter, nearly 60 per cent to 70 per cent of people were simply unwilling to speak or even acknowledge questions," he said.
He mentioned observing an atmosphere of "fear" during the first phase of polls in the state.
"People are scared that if they say anything, something untoward may happen to them. The reason can be attributed to violence during polls in the state," he said.
Moreover, Gupta highlighted that it will be interesting to see how far the Aam Janata Unnayan Party, led by Humayun Kabir, is able to cut into the minority votes in Bengal. Also, it has to be seen whether or not the BJP is able to gain from that.
About the factors that will play a role in deciding the election results, he said: "In every election, anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency is a major factor, and it remains significant this time as well. Secondly, it is important to note that all five states -- located in the South and East -- are non-Hindi speaking regions."
He noted that over the last two to three years, the current governments have focused heavily on direct money transfers to women, and the results will reflect whether the "trend" still works or not.
Gupta said that Assam has witnessed a significant shift in alliances.
"The BJP-led NDA alliance includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and this time, the BPF (Bodo People's Front) has also joined. Last time, AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front) had contested the election in alliance with Congress; this time, the party has contested individually," he said.
Gupta reminded that delimitation had already happened in Assam in 2023.
"It remains to be seen whether the people there still show faith in the incumbent BJP government and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma," he added.
The poll analyst said that Kerala usually follows a trend of changing the government after every five years, though that has not been the case the last time, and so the Left alliance government in the state faces a "significant anti-incumbency".
"The United Democratic Front (UDF) has been out of power in the state for ten years. The BJP had a significant victory in the mayoral polls in Thiruvananthapuram, which is why we have to see if the NDA's performance improves this time," he said.
In Tamil Nadu, Gupta called TVK's Vijay as the "third player" and said that the focus will be on how far he's able to dent the prospects of other parties and moreover, how much he himself is able to gain from the election.
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