Thiruvananthapuram, April 22 Celebrations have started in Kerala for the ninth year of the Pinarayi Vijayan regime, which began in 2016, and continued after he led his CPI-M to a stellar victory in 2021 for an unprecedented second consecutive term, amid talks that he will lead the Left to a third successive win in 2026.
But apart from rhetoric, which the CPI-M knows how to use, a stumbling block could well be the soon-to-be announced Nilambur by-election.
Vijayan on Monday kickstarted the campaign to mark the ninth straight year in office and the fourth anniversary of his second term from the state's northern district of Kasargod and the measure will end next month when it covers all the 14 districts before winding it up at the capital district.
What has given the impetus for Vijayan, who turns 80 next month, is the newly elected CPI-M General Secretary M.A. Baby's rhetorical question to the media if they could suggest anyone other than Vijayan who could lead the Left Democratic Front at the 2026 Assembly polls.
However, former CPI-M firebrand leader C.P. John, who is now in the Congress-led UDF camp with his CMP, contended that the very fact that the CPI-M continues to bank on Vijayan is going to be their biggest failure.
"The very fact that the CPI-M, which is continuing to project the soon-to-be-80 Vijayan, is going to backfire on them. It’s surprising that the CPI-M fails to think beyond Vijayan, who, due to his age, can be called an old man," John said.
The Nilambur by-election has now turned out to be a must win for Vijayan as this seat, which was often considered as a bastion of the Congress, was won in the 2016 and 2021 polls by the CPI-M, which, in a deft political move, fielded P.V. Anvar, son of a veteran Congress leader whose home the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru visited.
Anvar was fielded as a CPI-M supported independent candidate, but in 2024, he parted ways with the CPI-M and in January this year, surprised all by resigning as a legislator and also announcing that he would not contest the by-election.
Anvar, in the past few weeks, has been moving heaven and earth to enter the UDF as he is now the coordinator of the Trinamool Congress in Kerala, but top Congress leaders have informed him that they will be interested only if he drops the Trinamool party tag.
A political commentator said the rhetoric of the CPI-M highlighting that it is going to be Vijayan who will become the CM again suffered a jolt with the resignation of Anvar.
"To keep the Vijayan flying high, the Left has to win the Nilambur by-election, as for the past two terms, Anvar has been winning. Assuming the Congress-led UDF candidate wins, the CPI-M will find it tough to defend how they can’t win a by-election and that too in a seat they hold... how can they put up a narrative that Vijayan will become the next CM also," the commentator asked.
However, CPI-M state Secretariat member and former legislator M. Swaraj said they are ready and just waiting to announce their candidate, which will come only after the Election Commission announces the date of the by-election.
Meanwhile, the Congress is also finding it tough as two candidates are fighting it out, including Aryadan Shoukath, who lost to Anvar in 2016, besides the Malappuram district President, V.S. Joy.
Anvar has already pointed out that Joy is the best bet, as he and Shoukath have not been on the same page for several years.
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