New Delhi, Jan 3 The rainfall during January to March, averaged over north India, is most likely to be normal with the probabilistic forecast suggesting that normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is likely over some isolated parts of the region.
Normal rainfall for this season for north India is 86 to 114 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA), which is about 183.5 mm and is basically the average rainfall over north India during the JFM period between 1961-2010.
Among the three months, the 2022 January rainfall averaged over north India is most likely to be above normal (over 124 per cent of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over north India is about 48.5 mm.
"The forecast suggests that normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of north India except some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab where below normal rainfall is most likely," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
IMD has seven meteorological subdivisions - east Uttar Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh - that receive about 18 per cent of its annual rainfall during January to March. Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh in particular receive about 31 per cent of their precipitation during this period (snow).
The winter rainfall is very crucial for Rabi crops over the region. "It is also crucial for the water management of the region. Because of these reasons, India Meteorological Department has been issuing long-range forecast outlooks for the winter rainfall over north India," the IMD release said.
The probability forecast for the minimum temperatures indicates that above normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of north, northwest and northeast India and adjoining areas of east India in January 2022 while below normal to normal minimum temperatures are most likely over many areas of the north peninsula and some parts of central India.
The probability forecast for the maximum temperatures indicates that below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of central and peninsular India. Above normal temperatures are likely over some parts of northwest and north India and most parts of northeast India.
"Currently, moderate La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest forecast is indicating that these La Nina conditions are likely to persist during the JFM season. Thereafter, the La Nina conditions are likely to start weakening."
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