New Delhi, April 26 Eminent psephologist, stock market analyst and former World Bank economist Surjit Bhalla predicts that the BJP will get between 321 to 341 seats in the upcoming general elections, but the big news will be the party opening its account in Tamil Nadu with 5-10 because of the Sanatana Dharma controversy.
Bhalla's analysis is based on a study of the state elections that have taken place from 2019 up to the present and it has shown that the BJP, bucking incumbency, has gained 5 per cent additional vote share over the years. The analysis has been presented in detail in Bhalla's just-published book, 'How We Vote' (Juggernaut).
If the party holds on to this gain, it will touch 334 seats; if its vote share growth drops to 3 per cent, then the total will be 321, but if it rises to 7 per cent, the BJP will nudge at 341, which would mean "400 paar for the NDA".
Bhalla, who's been studying elections since 1985, pinpointed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity among women, "including Muslim women, who will vote for the BJP in the privacy of the polling booth", as the principal reason for the BJP's unassailable position.
He pointed out, quoting analyses from his book, that in a general election no issue is bigger to voters than how they perceive their personal gains under a particular government.
Even the Opposition's favourite plank -- sharp rise in unemployment -- does not stand up to data collated by Bhalla. He said the rate for the 18-29 age group, which is most affected by unemployment, has actually come down from 14.8 per cent in 2019 to 10.2 per cent today. Even in the majority, voters who are in the 30-64 age group, unemployment is down from 1 per cent to 0.6 per cent.
Returning to how PM Modi's biggest asset is his ability to sense the pulse of the nation while shaping his government's development agenda, Bhalla asked: "What prevented our rulers in the 60 years before 2014 to make the end to open defecation a priority for the national government?"
He said the elites making policies in ministries before 2014 had no idea that the majority of the women in the country did not have any safe access to toilets -- that they had to wake up at odd hours to complete their morning ablutions to ensure their safety and privacy, before the men got up.
Similarly, Rajiv Gandhi just talked about the reality that only 15 per cent of development funds reach the intended beneficiaries, with politicians, officials and middlemen cornering the rest. What PM Modi has done is use technology to ensure that at least 90 per cent of the funds reach the people they are meant for.
The Food Security Act was legislated by the UPA government, but it is PM Modi who has implemented it on the ground and the beneficiaries are now voting for him.
Bhalla concluded by stating confidently that PM Modi's vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047 is eminently achievable -- "if not earlier than 2047" -- if we maintain an average GDP growth rate of 6 per cent per annum.
And, as he put it (pointing to the last line in his book, borrowed from Bill Clinton), "It's the economy, stupid!" There's no economic argument that is working against PM Modi today.
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