Thiruvananthapuram Dec 12 Kerala's political formations are bracing for a decisive day as counting of votes in the local body elections begins at 8 am on Saturday across 244 centres statewide.
With turnout dipping in both phases of polling, the political fronts are closely crunching numbers to gauge which way the public mood has shifted ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.
Polling in the second phase, held across districts from Thrissur to Kasaragod on Thursday, recorded 76.08 per cent turnout — lower than the 77.9 per cent average logged in the same districts in 2020.
The first phase, covering seven districts from Thiruvananthapuram to Ernakulam, had witnessed 70.91 per cent polling, also below the 2020 average of 73.82 per cent.
This across-the-board decline has triggered intense speculation, with analysts reading the drop as a sign of a uniform sentiment running through the state.
The political fronts, however, interpret the numbers differently.
The CPI-M and the LDF camp insist that their cadre votes have been fully mobilised and that reduced turnout historically favours the Left.
Yet party sources are cautious this time, partly due to the controversy surrounding Congress leader Rahul Mamkootathil, which they believe may have kept some voters away.
The UDF counters this with its own narrative, arguing that discontent over governance issues and unresolved emotions around Sabarimala discouraged traditional voters from showing up.
The BJP, which conducted one of its most aggressive campaigns in recent years, claims that voter fatigue caused by what it describes as "ruling–opposition collusion" contributed to the decline, while also asserting that the drop masks substantial gains for the party.
District-wise, Wayanad (78.3 per cent ), Malappuram (77.43) and Kozhikode (77.26) recorded the highest turnouts in Phase Two, while Thrissur (72.46) and Kasaragod (74.86) saw the sharpest declines compared to 2020.
Corporation limits posted a steeper fall, with Thrissur Corporation dipping from 71.88 to 62.45 per cent.
Counting will begin at 8 a.m., with postal ballots opened first.
Panchayat votes are being counted at block-level centres, while municipalities and corporations have dedicated centres.
Control units from the EVMs are being brought out of strong rooms under strict supervision, with results uploaded booth-by-booth to the official trend portal.
Early trends from gram panchayats and municipal wards are expected by mid-morning, with complete results — including district panchayats — likely by around 2 p.m.
The outcome will not just determine control of 941 panchayats, 152 block panchayats, 14 district panchayats, 86 municipalities, and 6 corporations.
It will also serve as a political barometer for Kerala’s next big electoral battle to be held in April/May next year.
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