Nazira (Assam) [India], April 5 : As Assam prepares to head to the polls on April 9, all eyes are on the historic Nazira Assembly constituency. What was once the "resting place of boats" (Now-Jeera) for the Ahom royalty has become the ultimate testing ground for the political survival of the Congress party in Upper Assam.
Nazira is not merely a seat; it is a symbol of dynastic and regional prestige. The main contest in Nazira is expected between sitting MLA and Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia of the Congress and BJP candidate Mayur Borgohain.
Saikia, the Leader of the Opposition and son of the legendary former Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia, is seeking a fourth consecutive term. For the Congress, losing Nazira would be a catastrophic blow to its leadership morale, signalling the potential collapse of one of its few remaining "impenetrable" strongholds.
While Saikia has held the fort since 2011, the math suggests the walls are closing in. The BJP has demonstrated a relentless upward trajectory in this Ahom-dominated belt.
In 2021, Saikia successfully defended his seat by securing 52,387 votes, which accounted for 47.56% of the total vote share, with Borgohain, who came close to victory, garnering 51,704 votes (46.94%).
In 2021, BJP's Mayur Borgohain came within a razor-thin margin of 683 votes of toppling Saikia. Returning as the BJP candidate for 2026, Borgohain is banking on this momentum, with the party brass boldly predicting a victory margin of over 30,000 votes this time around.
BJP's share increased from the 2016 elections, where the party candidate secured 38014 votes, as Debabrata Saikia led with 52869 votes. This trend could prove to dangerous for Congress as the increasing share of votes for the BJP could turn the tide this time around.
For the Congress, retaining Nazira is critical as the seat is held by the Leader of Opposition; a loss would be seen as a major setback for the party's leadership and could signal a weakening of its traditional support base. It becomes especially significant as Debabrata Saikia is also the son of the late former CM Hiteswar Saikia, who served two terms in the state.
The battle for Nazira is a microcosm of the larger state-wide war. The BJP-led alliance (including AGP and BPF) is leveraging its "Double Engine" development narrative to finally breach the Sivasagar district fortress. The United Opposition: Congress is leading a six-party "Maha-Jot" including the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal, hoping that a unified anti-BJP vote will prevent the narrow splits that nearly cost them the seat in 2021.
In the last few days, the BJP has expressed confidence in securing its seat with a margin of at least 30,000 votes. NDA includes the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People's Front, aims to retain power in the northeastern state, which has 126 assembly seats.
Congress is challenging the BJP-led alliance with a six-party bloc including Congress, Assam Jati Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal, CPI(M), CPI(ML), and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference.
The Assam Legislative Assembly polls are scheduled for April 9, with counting of votes and declaration of results to take place on May 4.
Adjacent to Garhgaon, the ancient Ahom capital, the constituency carries immense cultural weight. The Ahom community's sentiment remains the deciding factor. While the Congress relies on deep-rooted historical ties, the BJP is aggressively courting the same demographic through infrastructure and cultural identity projects.
This assembly constituency also comes under the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, which is currently held by APCC President Gaurav Gogoi after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, who is the argueably the face of Congress in these high-stakes elections.
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