New Delhi, Feb 4 Global crude oil prices may see only a marginal uptick in the near term and will be curtailed to $68–70 per barrel in the long term despite geopolitical and supply‑side uncertainties, a report said on Wednesday.
Emkay Wealth Management Limited, the wealth management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report that any upward movement is likely to be gradual and capped, as market fundamentals point to slower global growth and cautious consumption across major economies.
Brent crude has traded in a subdued $60–65 range for over a year despite OPEC+ production curbs, amid lack of price breakout due to persistent imbalance between demand growth and emerging supply, the report highlighted.
The report further noted that demand forecasts continue to lag incremental production additions and prolonged low prices have curtailed capital expenditure across the energy sector, with major oil and gas companies deferring investments to preserve liquidity and balance‑sheet stability.
Output from Venezuela and Iran has normalised recently, with a larger portion of it flowing to Asian markets, particularly China.
However, fresh political developments and evolving geopolitical dynamics have reintroduced uncertainty around the continuity of these supplies.
“While geopolitical developments could support oil prices in the very short term, the underlying fundamentals suggest that any rally will be limited," said Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management.
Energy companies and market participants will need to navigate this phase with capital discipline and a focus on operational efficiency rather than relying on price‑led growth, he suggested.
The reports cited forecasts by the US Energy Information Administration that global oil inventories are expected to keep rising through 2026, exerting downward pressure on prices in the coming months. The agency has projected an average Brent crude price of around USD 55 per barrel in 2026, underscoring expectations of continued oversupply.
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