New Delhi, April 15 Healthcare companies in India are expected to deliver high single-digit revenue growth (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of FY26 (Q4 FY26), a report showed on Wednesday.
However, EBITDA margins will materially be corrected, according to the report by Systematix.
“Median growth is estimated at 12 per cent for revenue and 3.6 per cent for EBTIDA, with net earnings likely witnessing a 14 per cent decline, the report mentioned.
The primary driver of this on-year decline in net earnings is loss of exclusivity in gRevlimid, with the impact most pronounced for Dr. Reddy’s, Zydus, Cipla and Sun Pharma.
Cipla may additionally bear the brunt of supply disruption in Lanreotide, said the report.
Meanwhile, Lupin and Zydus may see some margin pressure due to mirabegron-related (royalty payments) settlements, the report said.
The quarter is likely to reflect mixed implications from the US–Iran conflict, as higher freight and raw material (RM) costs could partially offset the favorable impact of USD/INR appreciation.
"If the conflict persists, these cost pressures could intensify in the coming quarters. Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturers are likely to pass on the RM inflation and may even raise prices, as formulation manufacturers look to expand their RM inventories,” the findings showed.
Dr. Reddy’s could see the steepest earnings decline, as the disproportionate contribution of gRevlimid in its earnings would taper off completely.
Any potential shelf stock adjustments related to gRevlimid could further dent the company’s earnings, the report mentioned.
Meanwhile, India’s drug regulators are stepping up oversight of fast-growing weight-loss and diabetes therapies, particularly GLP-1 receptor agonists, amid rising demand and the anticipated entry of cheaper generic versions into the domestic market.
The move comes as the Indian Pharmacopoeia Commission (IPC), which functions under the Ministry of Health, has been tasked with systematically collecting and analysing adverse event reports linked to these drugs.
The initiative aims to strengthen post-marketing surveillance and ensure that any safety concerns are quickly identified and addressed.
Officials indicated that the step is part of a broader regulatory push to keep pace with the rapid uptake of these therapies, especially as affordability improves.
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