New Delhi, Nov 3 India is expected to have around 216 GW of solar capacity generating 305 billion units by FY28, driven by strong responses to applications under the Production Linked Incentive scheme, a report said on Monday.
The PLI scheme is enabling rapid capacity expansion, while efficiency gains -- where 1,700-2,200 panels (at 500 watts peak) are typically deployed for every 1 MW of solar power -- are reinforcing scale advantages in project execution, said the report from CareEdge Advisory, a subsidiary of ratings agency CareEdge Ratings.
CareEdge Advisory noted India’s installed solar base surged to 127.3 GW as of September 2025, up from 3.9 GW in FY15, and contributed about 25.7 per cent of total installed capacity.
India’s exports of solar photovoltaic (PV) products have surged by more than 10 times between FY19 and FY25, primarily to the US, the report said.
Government initiatives like PLI, Basic Customs Duty (BCD), and Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) have helped expand domestic solar module capacity to 100 GW, placing the country in fourth position worldwide.
India’s module manufacturing capacity is expected to add additional capacity of 100 GWp by the end of FY28, nearly three to four times the average annual module demand of 50-60 GWp over the next three years, the report said.
Domestic cell manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 100 GWp during the same period, with capex exceeding Rs 55,000 crore, driven by backward integration efforts, the advisory noted.
CareEdge Advisory expects that by FY28, India will require an estimated 36-47 crore solar panels (at 500 Wp) to achieve its targeted solar capacity of 215 to 220 GW.
The advisory expects module production to increasingly rely on exports, even as cell production is also likely to eclipse domestic demand in the medium term. This indicates that in the coming years, India’s module and cell output will exceed domestic requirements, positioning exports as the key growth driver for the sector.
The advisory, however, flagged that the early stage of upstream integration, continued reliance on Chinese supply chains, and lower progress in renewable capacity augmentation due to systemic constraints remain medium‑term risks.
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