New Delhi [India], January 24 : The subsidy burden of the government is expected to rise to approximately Rs 4.1-4.2 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) more than the budget estimates, according to a report by the Bank of Baroda.
The report highlighted that this increase is driven primarily by higher expenses on food and fertilizer subsidies, which are expected to exceed the budgeted allocation.
It said, "overall subsidy burden is expected to rise to approx. Rs 4.1-4.2 lakh crore in FY25. From that level, the burden is expected to come down to approx. Rs 4 lakh crore in the next financial year".
The government had initially set a budget estimate (BE) of Rs 3.8 lakh crore for major subsidies, including food, fertilizer, and petroleum, for FY25.
However, the report indicates that this allocation is likely to be surpassed by around 10 per cent, following a rise in the minimum support price (MSP) for Rabi crops for the marketing season 2025-26.
Additionally, higher costs of storage and transportation are further inflating the subsidy expenses.
The report highlighted that Fertilizer subsidies alone are expected to exceed the budget by 9-10 per cent, driven by a stronger US dollar, which has raised import costs. To prevent a rise in retail prices, the government is providing greater financial support. Consequently, the overall subsidy burden is projected to touch Rs 4.1-4.2 lakh crore in FY25.
However, some relief is anticipated in FY26, as the government is expected to rationalize subsidies. The total subsidy burden is forecast to reduce to around Rs 4 lakh crore, with a major decline expected in food subsidies, projected to be contained between Rs 2-2.1 lakh crore. Fertilizer subsidies, on the other hand, are expected to remain at Rs 1.7-1.8 lakh crore due to continued pressure from import costs.
The report also highlighted the government's gross borrowing target for FY25, set at Rs 14.01 lakh crore, with net borrowing pegged at Rs 11.63 lakh crore. Despite savings in other expenditure areas, the government is likely to maintain this target and reduce its reliance on small savings.
In FY26, net borrowing is expected to ease to Rs 10.8 lakh crore, while gross borrowing, including repayments of Rs 4.2 lakh crore, is projected to be around Rs 15 lakh crore.
The focus is expected to shift towards limiting debt levels, aided by an anticipated rate-cutting cycle by the Reserve Bank of India, which could lower deposit rates and make small savings funds more accessible.
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