New Delhi, March 1 Based on the fiscal 2025 GDP growth estimate of 6.5 per cent by the government, Q4 growth has been derived at 7.6 per cent, according to a SBI Research report on Saturday.
However, “we expect there will be revision of quarterly numbers in May 2025”, the report mentioned.
Also, real GDP growth rate of 9.2 per cent for 2023-24 is the highest in the previous 12 years, except FY22 growth (9.7 per cent, which is highest since independence), said the report.
Reaffirming positive bias in country’s endeavours to bring traction to all-encompassing holistic growth, India clocked 6.2 per cent GDP growth in Q3 FY25, recovering smartly from the blip witnessed in Q2 FY25 of 5.6 per cent growth.
Robust growth in agriculture and industry, especially manufacturing activities during the quarter ensured gross value added (GVA) increasing by 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY25 (5.8 per cent in Q2FY25).
Real GDP growth for FY23 and FY24 have been revised upwards by 62 bps and 104 bps, respectively as both yearly and quarterly past growth numbers have been revised.
There are also large revisions in the quarterly number of FY24. The quarterly GDP growth numbers of FY24 increased by 142 bps to 9.7 per cent in Q1, 126 bps to 9.3 per cent in Q2, 94 bps to 9.5 per cent in Q3 and 60 bps to 8.4 per cent in Q4.
For the current fiscal, while Q1 numbers have been revised downward by 13 bps to 6.5 per cent, Q2 numbers stand revised upward by 22 bps to 5.6 per cent.
“The upward skewness in revisions augurs well for the economic resilience, we believe,” the SBI report mentioned.
On a structural basis, agriculture and allied activities has showed a strong growth of 5.6 per cent in Q3 FY25 led by robust Kharif crop output due to a favourable monsoon and holistic farm-allied sector synchronisation that is also fortifying perennial income generation for farmers.
The industrial sector too rebounded and grew by 4.5 per cent in Q3 FY25 (3.8 per cent in Q2 FY25), led by robust growth in manufacturing (3.5 per cent).
Both electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services and mining and quarrying grew by 5.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively.
With better policy making and proofing leakage of benefits through DBT, the per capita GDP at current prices is estimated stood at Rs 2.35 lakh in FY25, with decadal CAGR growth of 9.1 per cent. Interestingly, in the last two fiscals, the per capita GDP has jumped by more than Rs 40,000 at current prices.
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