Kharif crop's monsoon dependency on a gradual decline: India Ratings

New Delhi [India], May 13 : The dependency of Kharif crop output on monsoon rainfall has been on a gradual decline, according to an analysis done by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

However, the dependency of rabi output remains intact, it asserted after the analysis.

Traditionally, Indian agriculture (especially the Kharif area/output) is heavily reliant on the normal progression of monsoon rainfall. However, with the spread of irrigation facilities in the country, the dependency of Kharif output on monsoon rainfall has gradually declined, the rating agency asserted.

As per the latest data, the irrigation intensity at the all-India level had improved to 55.0 per cent in 2020-21 from 41.8 per cent in 1999-20.

"An above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2024 no doubt has brightened the prospect of agriculture and rural demand; however, much would depend on the spatial/geographical spread of rainfall during the south-west monsoon season (June-September) which has been uneven over the past few years," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, Ind-Ra.

IMD in its first long-range forecast has stated the southwest monsoon (June-September) this year is expected to be above normal (106 per cent of the long-period average). Skymet, a private forecaster, has also forecast a normal monsoon this year.

"It has predicted an above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2024 after a gap of seven years due to the development of La-Nina and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions in the second half and later part of the season, respectively," Ind-Ra said.

India receives over 70 per cent of its overall rainfall during this southwest monsoon period.

Thus, the timely and proper occurrence of monsoon rainfall holds prominence for the Indian economy, given the livelihood of nearly 45 per cent of India's population depends on agriculture which depends on rainfall.

The IMD has been releasing its first stage forecast for southwest monsoon rainfall during April since 2003. The first stage forecasts hold importance for farmers, policymakers, and investors, who make use of this information to undertake necessary actions for the forthcoming Kharif season.

Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.

These rains are crucial, especially for kharif crops dependent on rains. India has three cropping seasons summer, kharif and rabi.

Crops that are sown during October and November and the produce harvested from January depending on maturity are Rabi. Crops sown during June-July and dependent on monsoon rains are harvested in October-November are kharif. Crops produced between Rabi and Kharif are Summer crops.

Paddy, moong, bajra, maize, groundnut, soyabean, and cotton are some of the major Kharif crops.

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