New Delhi [India], June 25 : As of June 24, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall stands at 4.0 per cent above the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a positive start to the season.
According to ICICI Bank research, this marginal surplus in rainfall is expected to benefit Kharif crop production in states that have received sufficient rainfall.
The report attributed the data to CEIC and IMD and mentioned that Rajasthan (135 per cent above LPA) and Gujarat (134 per cent above LPA) have received the highest excess rainfall among the major Kharif states.
Other key Kharif crop producing states such as Madhya Pradesh (28 per cent above LPA), Uttar Pradesh (19 per cent), Tamil Nadu (15 per cent), Karnataka (10 per cent), Haryana (11 per cent), and West Bengal (7 per cent) have also recorded rainfall above the seasonal average. Punjab has received rainfall equal to the LPA.
This widespread and timely rainfall is expected to positively impact sowing and crop growth, improving overall agricultural output.
However, not all regions have fared equally well. States like Telangana (43 per cent below LPA), Chhattisgarh (36 per cent below LPA), Andhra Pradesh (34 per cent below LPA), and Bihar (20 per cent below LPA) are facing rainfall deficits. If the shortfall continues, it may affect kharif sowing and crop yields in these regions.
The monsoon, which began on a weaker note, improved significantly in the second half of June. Cumulative rainfall now stands at 104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), which is slightly below the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of 108 per cent for June. However, the rainfall distribution remains uneven across the country.
Even though rainfall in some major kharif-producing states is below LPA, Kharif sowing so far is up 10.4 per cent (YoY). Out of the normal sowing of 109.7mn ha, 13.8mn ha of sowing has already been completed (12.5mn ha last year)
The growth in sowing has been largely driven by key crops such as rice, which has seen a 57.9 per cent YoY increase, pulses (up 42.4 per cent), and coarse cereals (up 22.1 per cent). However, the sowing of oilseeds and jute & mesta has declined by 2 per cent and 2.8 per cent YoY respectively.
With monsoon activity still progressing, further developments in rainfall distribution over the coming weeks will be critical to determine the full impact on agriculture across the country.
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