Vodafone Idea Shares Price Fall 3% After SC AGR Relief; Experts Call It a Risky Buy

Shares of Vodafone Idea slipped as much as 3 per cent today (Tuesday, October 28) a day after  Supreme Court allowed  the Centre to reconsider and reconcile the company's pending adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues amounting to Rs 5,606 crore for the financial year 2016-17. The top court said that the issue falls within the policy domain of the government. Vodafone Idea shares opened sharply higher at Rs 10.10 on NSE today and went on to make an intraday high of Rs 10.15. Vi shares, however, erased the gains and traded 3 per cent lower at Rs 9.66 around 11 AM.

Yesterday, Vodafone Idea shares reversed early losses and surged 9% after the Supreme Court allowed the Central government to reconsider the reassessment of the telecom operator’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. The apex court observed that the matter lies within the policy domain of the Union government.

However,Emkay Global Financial Services has reiterated its ‘Sell’ rating on Vodafone Idea (VI), setting a target price of ₹6, compared to the current market price of ₹10. The brokerage believes that while the recent Supreme Court decision offers a potential policy window for relief, the company’s debt burden remains a major overhang. According to Emkay, even after excluding AGR dues, Vodafone Idea’s debt of around ₹1.18 trillion—mostly related to spectrum payments—remains extremely high given its current earnings. The brokerage noted that the company’s EBITDA stood at ₹92 billion in FY25, excluding IndAS-116 impact, and called for a “holistic view” from the government on the telco’s solvency.

Global brokerage firm Citi has maintained a 'high risk buy' rating on Vodafone Idea with a price target of ₹10. Citi said the apex court's order "has permitted the Government of India to consider grievances of the company on issues relating to AGR," adding that this could have "significant positive ramifications for Vodafone Idea and, by extension, for Indus Towers."The brokerage expects that with a large lump-sum AGR payment due in March 2026, any relief is likely to come "well ahead of this deadline, in the coming weeks and months." Citi reckons that AGR relief by the government could provide much-needed confidence to banks to extend credit to the company. This, in turn, would help alleviate concerns about the sustainability of Vodafone Idea's network capex, which have arisen due to recent delays in securing bank debt.

Additionally, with the share price now hovering around the critical ₹10 mark, AGR relief could pave the way for another equity raise down the line. A successful equity raise would dilute the government's stake below the current 49%, giving it the option to convert additional dues into equity.Analysts say any potential relief on the AGR front could ease Vodafone Idea's cash-flow pressure and help it raise up to ₹25,000 crore in bank debt. For now, the Supreme Court’s decision has bought Vodafone Idea time, but whether it’s enough to secure a true turnaround will depend on how soon the government converts legal relief into financial action.