Taipei [Taiwan], November 27 : China is likely to launch military exercises near Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's upcoming Pacific trip and rumoured US transit stops, according to assessments from Taiwanese and regional security officials.
The drills could take place during or shortly after Lai's trip, which ends on December 6, and are expected to underscore Beijing's objections to what it sees as provocations, Taipei Times reported.
Lai is scheduled to visit three of Taiwan's diplomatic allies in the Pacific starting Saturday, with potential stopovers in Hawaii and Guam. While his office has not confirmed these US transits, sources familiar with the trip suggest details will be disclosed shortly before his departure. Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, criticized Lai's planned stops, calling them "essentially provocative acts that violate the 'one China' principle."
China has previously staged two major rounds of military exercises near Taiwan this year, labelled "Joint Sword-2024A" and "Joint Sword-2024B." Analysts believe Beijing could rebrand ongoing manoeuvres as "Joint Sword-2024C," repackaging routine military activity into a broader display of force.
A Taiwanese security official noted, "Beijing could expand the size of its regular 'joint combat readiness patrol,'" and may target the end of Lai's trip for a "targeted exercise," reported Taipei Times.
The drills could also align with Beijing's broader objective of asserting dominance in the region, particularly during the transition to the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump. "Beijing wants to show the incoming US administration that the first island chain is 'China's sphere of influence,'" the official said.
They added, "Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power" in response to perceived challenges from the US and its allies.
Although weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait during winter may limit the scale of these exercises compared to previous rounds, the drills remain a calculated effort to test Washington's response. "The military drills were meant for the US and its allies," the report stated citing a source.
Another official noted that more favourable weather could lead to an earlier or delayed display of force surrounding Lai's visit, Taipei Times reported.
With an estimated 20 to 30 Chinese naval vessels engaged in manoeuvres in the South China Sea this week, experts believe Beijing is prepared to intensify its military activities near Taiwan, turning Lai's visit into a pretext for further asserting its regional ambitions.
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