Intel flags Bangladesh elections, ISI push as biggest security challenge for India’s northeast

New Delhi, Jan 1 The security agencies have their task cut out this year as the situation in Bangladesh is worsening and Pakistan is back to its old tricks to try and destabilise India. At least three Intelligence Bureau assessments suggest that the biggest challenge this year would be Bangladesh and the security situation in the northeastern states.

An official stated that two highly troubled nations -- Myanmar and Bangladesh -- are holding elections this year, and one could anticipate trouble. There is intense international scrutiny due to the deteriorating security situation in both countries. Hence, the elections would be extremely crucial, another official said.

India, however, is particularly concerned about the elections that are set to take place in Bangladesh on February 12. With the Awami League barred from the contest, the fight is between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Islami.

Under the Muhammad Yunus regime, the persecution of minorities has gone up, and incidents of violence are being reported every day. Further, Yunus, under pressure from the Jamaat, has been too friendly with Pakistan and, in the bargain, made several exceptions that include opening up the sea-route and easing visa norms.

An official explained that the Bangladesh situation will be far more tricky when compared to Myanmar, where there is no anti-India sentiment, but that is not the case in Bangladesh. There is a rhetoric in Bangladesh portraying India as the chief troublemaker. The Jamaat is known to be anti-India, but joining them is the National Citizen Party (NCP), which has also been drumming up a similar rhetoric.

Hasnat Abdullah, a leader of the NCP, has threatened to shelter anti-India forces. Most of the political outfits in Bangladesh believe that the elections can be won on an anti-India rhetoric. This explains why the Bangladesh establishment has been soft on terror groups such as the Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islamic (HuJI), Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Bangladesh (JMB), among others. These groups are being nurtured by the Yunus regime and ISI, particularly to shake up northeastern India, officials say.

Yunus himself has referred to the northeast as ‘landlocked’. Additionally, there have been several instances when Greater Bangladesh maps have appeared in Bangladesh. This is a clear strategy by the ISI which is aimed at creating trouble in the northeastern states.

While making provocative statements relating to the region, the ISI has also been trying to activate its modules in these states. Earlier this week, the Assam Police busted a Bangladesh-linked terror module and arrested 11 persons. This module was activated by the ISI to carry out terror attacks in the northeastern states in the run-up to the elections. This terror group operated under the banner of Imam Mahmuder Kafila (IMK). However, officials say that this is a proxy of the JMB, which is one of the top terror groups operating out of Bangladesh.

Intelligence Bureau officials say that the border would be fragile in the run-up to the elections in both countries. Any violence that takes place in these countries has the potential of spilling over into the northeastern states and West Bengal. Officials also warn that during this crucial period, there is ample evidence to suggest that Indian insurgent groups operating in Myanmar and the ISI-backed elements in Bangladesh would look to enter India and create trouble.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that in the run-up to the elections and before formal diplomatic channels open up, the ISI would use its proxies to push hard. Attempts would be made to push lakhs of illegal immigrants into the northeastern states and West Bengal. With this, they would attempt to push in arms and ammunition, fake currency, and narcotics, the official said.

Another official said for New Delhi, it would be a wait-and-watch game until the election process is complete. Until then, the priority would be the borders so that the security situation in India does not turn chaotic, the official further added.

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