New Delhi [India], May 10 : In a reality check on the "new world disorder," former Deputy National Security Advisor Arvind Gupta pulled back the curtain on Pakistan's frantic attempts to play peacemaker between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking with ANI, Gupta dismissed the notion of Islamabad as an "innocent mediator," suggesting instead that a desperate Iran may simply have run out of options.
"I still feel very surprised that Iran has put so much trust in Pakistan because Pakistan is not an innocent mediator. But still, probably there was no other option," said Gupta.
Gupta's assessment comes as Islamabad has aggressively sought to inflate its diplomatic standing in 2026, attempting to project itself as the central "primary intermediary" amidst the persistent hostilities between the US and Iran. Since the conflict erupted in February 2026, Pakistan has moved to spearhead a series of mediation phases focused on orchestrating a "permanent ceasefire" and the resumption of traffic through the "Strait of Hormuz."
While Gupta admitted that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a win for the global economy, he remains wary of the actors taking the credit. "If the Strait of Hormuz opens as a result of these talks and somebody takes credit for it, so be it. So be it. It's good for us. It's good for everyone."
Despite these ambitions, the actual diplomatic progress appears thin. In a high-profile move in mid-April, Pakistani authorities hosted an exhaustive 21-hour diplomatic session at the Serena Hotel. These "Islamabad Talks" featured participation from senior officials, including US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with the proceedings moderated by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir.
Despite the heavy optics, the sessions failed to secure a "final settlement." Instead, the process merely "institutionalised" a precarious truce, leaving regional stability tethered to a "15-point US proposal" and a "10-point Iranian response" as the only remaining frameworks for any subsequent dialogue.
Gupta's critique extends far beyond regional skirmishes, signalling the definitive end of the post-WWII era. He argues that the UN Security Council has become a "dysfunctional" relic, bypassed by the very P5 nations meant to uphold it.
"The rule-based order started fraying soon after the Second World War, and now it has reached this stage. Now it is very difficult. It has become dysfunctional because all the P5 have been breaking their own rules," he said, pointing out that the "UN Security Council is nowhere except for passing some resolutions."
He further asserted that traditional security structures are becoming obsolete, stating, "The days of collective security are over." Looking toward future alliances, he predicted that "the next phase of alliances, so-called alliances, will be more task-oriented, more mission-oriented, more flexible, and perhaps a little diffused also."
On the economic front, Gupta highlighted a significant reversal in global trends where "geopolitics is now leading geoeconomics." He observed that "this balance keeps changing because the globalisation phase is over," warning that this shift requires a total strategic overhaul: "We really need to go back to the drawing board. And there, we'll need new diplomacy, backed by new military doctrines."
In a sobering economic warning, Gupta noted that the current global volatility acts as a "shocker" on par with the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially slashing GDP growth by up to 1%. He highlighted a fundamental reversal in global logic: Geopolitics is now leading geoeconomics.
"We are entering a phase where we were taking off, but suddenly you find that maybe we will have half a per cent, one per cent GDP coming down. It's as much of a shocker as probably COVID was," he remarked.
As traditional frameworks crumble, Gupta's message to New Delhi is clear: the era of leaning on old alliances is finished. In this "new world disorder," India's survival hinges on its own deterrence and the resilience to weather shocks that the West can no longer preventand which "non-innocent" mediators like Pakistan are ill-equipped to solve.
"We should begin to look at the non-Western world now more intensely. That is where our possibilities lie because the West will behave more or less; ultimately, they'll come around to the same equilibrium," said Gupta.
Emphasising the need for national preparedness, Gupta stated, "The era of heightened geopolitical tensions has arrived, and deterrence and resilience are the two issues that we should really be working on."
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