Washington watches Modi–Putin summit closely, weighs implications

Washington, Dec 4 The Modi–Putin engagement in New Delhi on Thursday and Friday is prompting heightened scrutiny in Washington, where foreign-policy experts are parsing both the optics and the outcomes of the high-profile summit.

Several leading analysts told IANS on Wednesday that the broader US national-security community will be particularly attentive to the tone of the visit, the substance of any agreements, and the political reaction from the White House.

Lisa Curtis, who served in the first Trump Administration and is now Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Centre for New American Security, said bluntly that "the United States will not find this meeting helpful," given that it is occurring at a time when "President Putin is escalating his war against Ukraine and even threatening Europe with drone incursions and cyber-attacks."

Curtis noted that the meeting nevertheless sends a diplomatic signal to Washington. India "will not be bullied," she said, pointing to recent US pressure tactics, including "implementing 50 per cent tariffs on India" and outreach to Pakistan's military leadership.

She argued that PM Modi's decision to host Putin -- marking the Russian leader's first visit to India since the invasion of Ukraine -- underscores that New Delhi "is not going to sacrifice its strategic autonomy or cave in to US pressure."

Regarding how President Trump might react, Curtis urged caution. His response, she said, "can be somewhat unpredictable," adding that while he "responded pretty badly" to PM Modi's meeting with Chinese President Xi earlier in the year, the administration is currently engaged in "very sensitive talks between the United States and Russia."

She recommended that Washington avoid "an overreaction," emphasising that "India and Russia have traditionally had strong relations."

At the Brookings Institution, Senior Fellow Tanvi Madan said that Washington will be watching two aspects of the summit in particular -- the level of ceremonial treatment accorded to Putin and the concrete outcomes on defence and energy.

"How much of a red carpet will be rolled out… but also what is the substance? What are the deals?" she said, adding that US analysts will examine "what defence agreements are signed," even if they are concluded on the sidelines.

Madan also flagged renewed attention to India's purchases of Russian oil. "People will be looking at numbers in terms of what the state of oil imports is," she said.

On how the Trump White House might respond, Madan described considerable uncertainty. She noted that President Trump "himself has engaged with President Putin," citing the recent visit of Jared Kushner and developer Steven Witkoff to Moscow for discussions related to the Ukraine war. Yet, she added, the administration's tariff -- or as India views it, "sanctions" -- measures on Russian oil flows remain in place. Trump has framed such imports, including those from India, as impediments to "bringing this war to an end." The reaction, she said, will depend partly on the "deals actually signed between India and Russia."

Richard Fontaine, a former senior State Department official and currently CEO of the Centre for a New American Security, said the US government's response is complicated to anticipate. Washington, he noted, will monitor the visit closely, given Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine and hopes in some quarters that New Delhi might distance itself further from Moscow.

"You could imagine a quite sharp reaction to watching a red carpet be rolled out for Vladimir Putin," Fontaine said. "On the other hand, the president just had his special envoy and his son-in-law in Moscow yesterday talking with Putin himself."

Whether the administration sees PM Modi's meeting as provocative or simply a diplomatic engagement, he added, "we're gonna have to wait and see."

Lindsey Ford, who served on the Biden Administration's National Security Council and is currently a Senior Fellow at ORF America, emphasised that US officials are looking beyond symbolism into the specifics of cooperation.

She said Washington has "been well received" by reductions in Russian energy trade to India, and understands the "existing relationship" and ongoing cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow.

But concerns remain strongest around sectors "like technology, like defence," which she described as "very important in the US–India relationship."

Ford declined to speculate on the White House's imminent reaction, saying only: "I think we should all wait and see what comes out of the summit and then take it from there."

PM Modi's meeting with Putin comes at a moment when Washington's Russia policy has entered a more fluid phase.

With Trump seeking to position himself as a potential broker in the Ukraine conflict, and with senior US envoys engaging Moscow directly, the administration must balance its desire to exert pressure on Russia with its interest in maintaining strong ties with India -- a key partner in the Indo-Pacific and a central pillar of US strategy vis-a-vis China.

For now, analysts say the US response is likely to hinge on two factors: how warmly New Delhi publicly embraces Putin, and what substantive defence, energy, or technology agreements emerge behind closed doors. Both will help determine whether Washington reacts sharply, stays measured, or chooses strategic silence.

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