Kalyan Lok Sabha Election 2024: Can High Turnout in Mumbra-Kalva Propel Darekar to Upset Victory Over Confident Shinde?

Compared to the 2019 election, voter turnout in the Kalyan Lok Sabha constituency has increased by four percent, reaching 50.12 percent. Out of 2,082,221 eligible voters, 1,043,610 cast their votes, according to the Election Commission's announcement on Tuesday. There is anticipation about whether this increased turnout will help Mahayuti candidate Dr. Shrikant Shinde achieve his goal of a 500,000 vote lead or provide relief to Maha Vikas Aghadi candidate Vaishali Darekar.

Will high turnout in Kalyan East, Mumbra and Kalwa help Darekar? 

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had declared "This time, over five lakhs" while filing Dr. Shrikant Shinde's nomination, setting a high bar for the campaign. The campaign's focus shifted after the nomination was filed on May 2. On election day, after a slow start in the morning, voter turnout picked up pace in the Kalyan East, Mumbra, and Kalwa assembly constituencies. However, the turnout in Mumbra-Kalwa, compared to the Mahayuti strongholds of Dombivli, Kalyan Rural, and Ulhasnagar, has caused some concern for the alliance. In Dombivli and Kalyan constituencies, many voters found their names missing from the lists, causing them to leave the booths without voting, increasing the anxiety among Mahayuti leaders.

Vaishali Darekar's hopes were boosted by the voter turnout in areas like Kalyan East, Mumbra, and Kalwa, where she had extensively campaigned. Kalyan East saw 216,159 votes, Kalyan Rural 231,162 votes, and Mumbra 156,235 votes, which were significant compared to Dombivli’s 142,142 votes, Ulhasnagar’s 131,505 votes, and Ambernath’s 166,407 votes.

Impact of the Shooting Incident?

- The election results will reveal whether the shooting incident involving Kalyan East MLA Ganpat Gaikwad and Shiv Sena city chief Mahesh Gaikwad influences voter behavior.
- Additionally, the impact of MNS President Raj Thackeray's comments on migrants and Muslims during his campaign in Mumbra-Kalwa on Mahayuti's vote share will become clear post-results.

In both the 2014 and 2019 elections, NCP candidates secured over 220,000 votes. The distribution or splitting of these votes this time will be crucial.