Mumbai: The monsoon is changing its pattern and the frequency of excess rainfall in a short period in July and August has increased. Meteorologists have predicted at least four spells of heavy rainfall in late June, twice in July, and once each in August and September this year. While expressing fears that these four to five rains will lead to a flood-like situation in Mumbai, the calculation of big rains depends on the change in weather. Meteorologists have also pointed out that as the monsoon progresses, the picture will become clearer.
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Mumbai receives 40 per cent of the average rainfall in two to three days of monsoon. It rains heavily six times every year, heavy rainfall is observed five times. In Mumbai, areas below sea level get waterlogged during monsoon.
Forecast every six hours:
The Indian Meteorological Department does not use the term cloudburst. It is scientifically defined as heavy rain, heavy to very heavy rainfall. Cloudbursts are not predicted. If there is more than 200 mm of rain in the next 24 hours, it is detected through radar. In Mumbai, forecasts are now given every six hours with 24 and 48 hours. If there are major changes, forecasts are made every three hours.
"The monsoon pattern has changed in the last five to seven years. There are many reasons for heavy rainfall, but heavy rains occur when there are many conditions such as severe troughs, low-pressure areas of monsoons in the Bay of Bengal and strong monsoon waves. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected after June 20. Heavy rain is forecast for July. There will be heavy rainfall at least 2-3 times in July. This can lead to flooding." - Atreya Shetty, meteorologist
"Mumbai has not been experiencing more intense rainfall lately than it used to. As a result, the average rainy days have decreased. In July and August, rain wreaks havoc and causes flooding. Mumbai is witnessing heavy rains. People of the previous generation were used to it. Encroachment on drainage routes of heavy rains and the artificial narrow drainage routes created are not acceptable to nature. That's why floods are created during the rainy season." - Manikrao Khule, meteorologist
Annual average:
1) Colaba :221.3 cm
2) Santa Cruz: 250.2 cm
Out of 365 days, the actual total rainfall days are 75 to 78. Mumbai's average annual rainfall is 235.8 cm
Rainfall records for July:
1) Colaba - 76.9 cm (average)
2) Santacruz - 92 cm (average)
This year, there is a possibility of rain between July 4-7, July 18-21 and July 31.
Rainfall records for August:
1) Colaba – 47.2 cm (average)
2) Santacruz - 56 cm (average)
This year, there is a possibility of rain between August 1 and 4, 15 to 19, 29, 30, 31.
Rainfall records for September:
1) Colaba - 35.6 cm (average)
2) Santacruz - 38.4 cm (average)
This year, rain is expected between September 1, 12-16 and September 25-29.