India likely to see above-normal rainfall in May, mixed heat trends as El Nino signal strengthens: IMD

New Delhi, (India), May 1 India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).

In its monthly outlook for May 2026, the IMD said maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across large parts of the country, offering some relief from extreme heat. However, above-normal daytime temperatures are likely in southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast and northwest India.

Night temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to stay warmer than usual in most regions. Some pockets of northwest and central India, along with adjoining peninsular and northeastern areas, may still record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.

The IMD has also flagged an increase in heatwave days in specific regions, particularly along the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of the east coast, and in Gujarat and Maharashtra, even as the broader temperature outlook remains moderated.

Rainfall is expected to be favourable across much of the country, with normal to above-normal precipitation likely in most regions. However, parts of east and northeast India and east-central India may receive below-normal rainfall.

The outlook comes against the backdrop of evolving oceanic conditions. The IMD said neutral conditions in the Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Nino, with climate models indicating its development during the southwest monsoon season. At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail, with a positive phase likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon.

The combined effect of these climate drivers could influence rainfall distribution and temperature patterns in the coming months.

The IMD noted that while relatively lower daytime temperatures in many regions may support harvesting of late rabi crops, higher night temperatures and localised heat stress in some regions could affect crop yields, particularly during critical growth stages.

Above-normal rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture and aid preparations for the upcoming kharif season, though excess rain in some areas may disrupt harvesting operations and increase the risk of crop damage due to waterlogging and fungal infections.

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