Is Pakistan once again positioning itself as the frontline state? (IANS Analysis)

By IANS | Updated: October 3, 2025 20:45 IST2025-10-03T20:44:48+5:302025-10-03T20:45:07+5:30

New Delhi, Oct 3 When Soviet troops marched into Afghanistan in December 1979, Pakistan’s geopolitical weight surged overnight. ...

Is Pakistan once again positioning itself as the frontline state? (IANS Analysis) | Is Pakistan once again positioning itself as the frontline state? (IANS Analysis)

Is Pakistan once again positioning itself as the frontline state? (IANS Analysis)

New Delhi, Oct 3 When Soviet troops marched into Afghanistan in December 1979, Pakistan’s geopolitical weight surged overnight. The country, then ruled by General Zia-ul-Haq, an Islamist military dictator on a mission to Islamize the state and society, discovered an opportunity. Zia cast Pakistan as the bulwark of the Western capitalist bloc against Soviet communism.

Over the next decade, Pakistan became a vital conduit for American money, arms, and covert operations, all aimed at pushing back Moscow’s advance. That fateful alignment transformed Pakistan into the “frontline state,” a role that brought short-term rewards but long-term costs: militarization, radicalization, and a dependency on foreign patronage that continues to shape its politics.

And now four decades later, history appears poised to repeat itself. The United States, fresh off its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, is now reconsidering its military posture in the region.

At the heart of these deliberations is Bagram Air Base, the country’s largest military base outside Kabul that served as the base of American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and by default Washington’s outpost for South and Central Asia.

While President Biden got the US troops out of the country that led to the very undoing of the Afghanistan Republican Government and return of Taliban, President Trump, however, seems determined to reclaim it to keep an eye on China. And Pakistan, ever adept at reinventing itself as indispensable, is preparing to play middleman once more.

US-Pakistan relations are seeing a resurgence after years of strain, partly due to Pakistan’s duplicitous role with US officials accusing Islamabad of supporting Taliban while projecting itself as an American ally during the two decades of War on Terror. There is a growing grapevine among Pakistani and American officials and analysts that a defence deal might be announced soon which explains heightened diplomatic contacts between the two sides.

It should be remembered that Washington has been pressing Islamabad for some time to open its airspace and military facilities to American forces for counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan as and when required. But more than that, Trump’s demands of Taliban cede control of Bagram airbase is for power projection within broader US-China rivalry.

And herein, Pakistan, despite its close relations with Beijing, is the piece on the chessboard that makes such a possibility into a reality.

The grapevine of such a possibility gains further credence with increased meetings between US and Pakistani officials. Last week, President Donald Trump and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, alongside the country’s powerful Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met in Washington.

The optics of such increased higher-level contacts are striking given Munir has already visited Washington three times in the past four months. During his first June meeting, Trump hosted Munir for an official luncheon, which is an honor typically reserved for visiting heads of state.

As such, the shuttle diplomacy of Asim Munir points to the urgency with which Islamabad is courting Washington. Trump, for his part, appears open to the idea of re-engaging Pakistan as a partner, reversing the estrangement of his first term, when he cut military aid and accused Islamabad of harboring terrorists.

The linchpin of this new partnership seems to be Trump’s demands of Afghanistan cede Bagram Air Base to the Americans. For Washington, reclaiming Bagram offers multiple advantages as it could serve as a forward base for surveillance operations against China, which is something that President Trump has publicly declared its use for.

Yet reclaiming Bagram is not a simple matter. The Taliban, who now govern Afghanistan, view the base as a symbol of foreign occupation.

Any US attempt to retake it directly risks triggering a new insurgency. And it is here where the role of Pakistan comes in.

It should be noted that Islamabad has failed to push Kabul to act against groups like TTP which pose threats to its national security during the last few years, a development that has strained the ties between the two countries.

Western media outlets are already shifting their tone. With the TTP launching deadly cross-border attacks in Pakistan, new narratives are characterizing Pakistan as a beleaguered state under siege by militant violence.

It obfuscates Islamabad’s role as an enabler of terrorism, and instead portrays it as a victim deserving of Western support as a frontline actor against terrorism. The new narrative can hardly be an accident, particularly given that the western media has often operated at the disposal of the interests of their governments.

The parallels with the 1980s are striking. Then, Pakistan was championed in the West as the courageous outpost resisting Soviet aggression. Billions of dollars in aid and weaponry flowed in, even as Pakistan’s military regime suppressed dissent at home. Today, with the Afghan Taliban back in power and China looming as America’s principal rival, the script seems eerily familiar. The only change is Pakistan-China relationship, but Islamabad has proven time and again that it can double cross for billions.

Nonetheless, the implications of such a role should not be lost on Pakistanis. For a country which is facing an economic crisis, political instability, and a resurgent wave of militancy, such a militaristic alignment with Washington risks alienating the Taliban further. It can lead to increased violence in the country. It also risks alienating China, Pakistan's largest trading partner and benefactor, as this US-Pak bonhomie can threaten derailing the trans-Himalaya partnership.

While Trump seems eager for rapid re-engagement, the Pakistani military, which is on the path of consolidating its primacy and securing external patronage, appears ready to oblige. And Pakistan’s civilian government, which sustains on the goodwill of military establishment, has little to say.

However, if the past is any indication, the costs will become clearer as time goes on. The last time Pakistan wore the crown of a frontline state, it emerged scarred with a radicalized society, a militarized political system, and a compromised polity. And now, when the U.S. looks at Bagram, and Pakistan is hoping to regain geopolitical relevance, the cycle is poised to start again. The question, then, is not whether Pakistan can reinvent itself as America’s indispensable partner. It is whether it can survive the consequences.

Disclaimer: This post has been auto-published from an agency feed without any modifications to the text and has not been reviewed by an editor

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