Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the monsoon is likely to hit Kerala in the next five days. The monsoon arrives in Kerala on June 1 every year. However, according to this revised forecast, it will hit a day earlier, i.e. on May 31. It has also been predicted that the country will receive average rainfall this year and the monsoon is likely to be above average or above normal in other parts of the country except northeast India.
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Cyclone Ramel, which has formed in the Bay of Bengal has led to fast movement of monsoon, and it is expected to hit Kerala in the next five days. It has also been predicted that the heat wave currently prevailing in north India will subside to some extent in the next three days.
The IMD on Monday predicted a prolonged spell of southwest monsoon for the four months of September, with the country likely to receive 106 percent of the normal rainfall. This will vary by 4 percent depending on the monsoon pattern, said the director general of the department, Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.
The Estimates
- Rains are likely to be more than 106 percent in central India and south India, 92 to 108 percent in northwest India, and below average in northeast India at 94 percent.
- The core zone of the monsoon, i.e. central India, is likely to be above average (above 106 percent).
- Normal rainfall (92 to 108 percent) is expected across the country in June. It is likely to occur at isolated places over South India and adjoining areas of central India as well as over northwest and northeast India. The northern and eastern parts of northwest India the eastern part of central India some parts of northeast India and south-eastern parts of the southern peninsula are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
- In June, the maximum temperature is likely to remain above average in most parts of the country, while the maximum temperature is likely to remain below normal except for many parts of southern peninsular India. The monthly minimum temperature will be above normal in most parts of the country, while the minimum temperature will be above average except in the northern parts of northwest India and some parts of east and northeast India.
- Heat wave days are likely to be above average over most parts of northwest India and adjoining areas of central India.
- Earlier this year, El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were rapidly strengthening, while El Niño conditions have weakened. La Niña conditions are expected to develop fully in the second half of the rainy season.
- Neutral Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) conditions are currently operating over the Indian Ocean. According to the latest forecasts of several global climate models, positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon.