Nilambur bypoll loss puts CM Vijayan on back foot, cabinet reshuffle likely

Thiruvananthapuram, June 25 The stunning defeat in the Nilambur Assembly bypoll has cast a shadow over the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government in Kerala, prompting speculation of a cabinet reshuffle.

While no overt dissent has emerged within the CPI(M) or the LDF, an unmistakable air of unease now hangs over the ruling coalition.

Touted as a semi-final ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, Nilambur was seen as a crucial litmus test. The Left had framed a victory here as a stepping stone towards securing a third consecutive term under Vijayan. That script has now unraveled, giving rise to murmurs of discontent and urgent calls for introspection within the party.

Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheesan described the result as a resounding rejection of Vijayan's leadership style.

"This isn’t just anti-incumbency. It’s a clear message of public anger against the Chief Minister’s arrogance and his style of functioning," Satheesan said, asserting that the Congress-led UDF’s victory was never in doubt.

Despite the setback, Vijayan maintains a firm grip over both the party and the government. However, questions are now being whispered within CPI(M) circles -- who will bell the cat and speak up about the urgent need for a change in the Chief Minister's approach?

The CPI(M)’s powerful state secretariat and state committee are meeting this week, and party insiders say discussions could be more candid than usual.

"Contrary to public perception, our meetings are not one-sided. Members do speak their minds, and this time there will be serious introspection, especially with local body elections approaching," a senior state minister told IANS on condition of anonymity.

A cabinet reshuffle is reportedly being discussed. During the Nilambur campaign, it was speculated that CPI(M) star candidate M. Swaraj would be made Forest Minister if elected, but that did not happen.

With Swaraj's defeat and growing criticism over the handling of man-animal conflicts in the state, Forest Minister A.K. Saseendran of the NCP could be on the chopping block, with CPI(M) eyeing the portfolio.

Satheesan also hinted at deeper political shifts, suggesting that a "churning" is underway in Kerala politics, and more parties may soon align with the UDF -- an indication that all is not well within the LDF’s alliance matrix.

As the local body elections near, pressure is mounting on the CPI(M) leadership to act swiftly. For now, the Nilambur debacle has pushed Vijayan onto the back foot, and the outcome of the party’s internal deliberations is being watched keenly -- both within Kerala and beyond.

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