New Delhi, Dec 1 Intelligence agencies in India have learnt that the Pakistan establishment is currently leaning more towards the Lashkar-e-Taiba rather than the Jaish-e-Mohammad, with these changes noticed post Operation Sindoor, where both terror outfits suffered severe and embarrassing losses at the hands of the Indian armed forces.
All major responsibilities to strike at India have been handed over to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Jaish-e-Mohammad appears to be taking a backseat. Officials tracking the developments say that there are several reasons why the Lashkar is being preferred over the Jaish.
The change began post Operation Sindoor. The JeM had suffered huge casualties, and many of them were personal. Apart from having its headquarters reduced to rubble, Masood Azhar lost several members of his family. He is a broken man and probably at a hospital in Rawalpindi. An Intelligence Bureau official said that an analysis of his videos and audio clips that have been released recently shows that, in reality, these are old ones and are being re-circulated. With Azhar refusing to come out and speak, his aides are circulating these old clips, claiming that they are new, only to boost the morale of the cadres, which is at an all-time low.
An official said that while the morale is down and Azhar is out of action, the bigger reason why the Jaish cadres are upset with the Pakistan establishment is owing to the relations with the Afghan Taliban. The Jaish shares a very good rapport with the Afghan Taliban, and in the past, many of its cadres have fought in Afghanistan against the Western forces.
Today, ties are at an all-time low between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The multiple strikes that Pakistan has carried out in Afghanistan have not gone down well with the Jaish's leadership.
Azhar had wanted a situation where his outfit, the Taliban, and the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) stand united and battle against India. However, miscalculations by Pakistan have landed it in such a situation whereby it is fighting both the Taliban and TTP on two different fronts. Pakistan has, without proof, accused the Taliban of backing the TTP, and this has led to ties further deteriorating between the two sides.
Experts say that the JeM views cadres of both the Taliban and TTP as one of their own, and this change in equations is something that the terror group did not want.
Like always, owing to this mistrust, Pakistan has gone back to its most preferred proxy, the Lashkar. This outfit and its leadership have never rebelled against the Pakistani establishment and have always followed blindly what the ISI or the army has asked them to do. There was just one time when there was a possibility of a rebellion. This is when Lashkar cadres insisted that they fight alongside the Taliban against the Western forces back in 2007, but the ISI convinced the leadership against it. In order to create a diversion and keep the cadre quiet, the ISI asked the Lashkar to execute the Mumbai 26/11 attacks. The plan to attack Mumbai was originally orchestrated by Al Qaeda’s 313 Brigade chief, Ilyas Kashmiri, and the ISI asked him to hand over the plan to the Lashkar.
In recent months, the ISI has kept Lashkhar chief Hafiz Saeed busy. Most of the terror launch pads across the Line of Control (LoC) are those of the Lashkar. Saeed has also been completely overseeing the operations of terror groups in Bangladesh. He is also scheduled to visit the country soon to speak with the cadres of all terror groups that operate out of Bangladesh. Further, he has also been told to immediately work on reviving the Lashkar's women’s wing. Saeed is setting up terror launchpads in Bangladesh and also across the LoC with the intention of hitting India.
On being asked if the Jaish would rebel against the Pakistani establishment, an Intelligence Bureau official said that the chances in the near future are slim. However, if these trust issues are not sorted out, then there is every chance of a rebellion. The Jaish has rebelled in the past, especially when it tried to assassinate then-Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf.
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