The last stand: Naxalite movement set to crumble before 2026 deadline

New Delhi, Oct 20 The deadline for the Naxalite movement to perish is March 31, 2026. However, going by the number of surrenders that have taken place over the last week, security officials estimate the movement could end by January 2026, the Republic Day.

The security forces currently have the upper hand, and even those Naxalites who want to continue fighting and not surrender will be eliminated by January next year. For the security mechanism, the final battle against the Naxalites will be relatively easy. The area of operations has come down drastically, and hence, the operations going forward would be more pinpointed.

The only affected areas currently are Bijapur, Sukma, and Narayanpur in Chhattisgarh. In areas such as Gariaband, Kanker, and Dantewada, the Maoists are in very small numbers, which suggests that they may surrender soon.

In the last three days, at least 300 Naxalites have surrendered along with their arms. While Naxalites have been gunned down in large numbers, there have also been scores who have surrendered. The first major sign that suggested the Naxalite movement was almost dead was when Venugopal alias Bhupati surrendered. He was among the top Naxalite leaders, and during his prime, he had plotted and executed several deadly attacks on the security forces. His surrender also signaled a deep rift among the ranks, as many others were unhappy about his decision.

Venugopal had also written a letter in which he made it clear that it was impossible to go ahead with the movement. "If we do not surrender, we will be overwhelmed by the security forces, and the best option is to give up arms and surrender," he had said in the letter.

Currently, there are only three top leaders who remain. They are Misir Bear, Thippari Tirupati, and Ganpati. On an estimate as to how many Naxalites may be remaining, officials say that the number could be in the range of 250 to 300. However, they are fighting hard for a variety of reasons. First, the leadership is very weak; second, they are falling short of arms and ammunition, and lastly, these persons have been forced to fight and have not been drawn by ideology.

However, the remaining Naxalites are more focused on protecting the three remaining top leaders. They are not trying to fight the security forces as they have realized that they may be killed. Officials also expect that out of the remaining Naxalites, many will surrender and abandon their leadership. They have realized that fighting is futile, and the surrender of Venugopal has sent a strong message that the fight is over.

The focus is on a battalion that is operating along the Chhattisgarh-Telangana border. This is the biggest one that remains, and all the top leaders are said to be here. Once this battalion is beaten down, then many more surrenders could follow, officials say.

Union Minister for Coal and Mines, G Kishan Reddy, had said that the large-scale surrenders reflect the growing faith in the government’s efforts to restore normalcy. He said that the Naxalite-affected districts had for several years been neglected. He also attributed the success against the Naxalites to developments and the strong resolve of the Narendra Modi government to end the menace.

While the Naxalite movement will get over sooner than one would have expected, Intelligence agencies are keeping a close watch on the activities of some of the sympathizers in the cities. It is important to ensure that with the movement on the ground, the ideology must also end. It may linger on for a while, with some elements making a push, but it is very debatable that this would gain any traction, an Intelligence Bureau official said.

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