The weather office said on Friday, November 1, that India experienced its warmest October since 1901, with the mean temperature recording 1.23 degrees Celsius above normal. It predicted a warmer November, giving no indication of the upcoming winter.
Addressing a press conference here, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra attributed the warmer weather to the absence of western disturbances and the influx of easterly winds due to active low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal.
The mean temperature in October was recorded at 26.92 degrees Celsius, the warmest since 1901, against the normal of 25.69 degrees Celsius, Mohapatra said. The minimum temperature also clocked 21.85 degrees Celsius against the normal of 20.01 degrees Celsius for the country as a whole.
"In north-western India, north-westerly winds are needed for lower temperatures. The monsoonal flow was also there that does not allow fall in temperature," Mohapatra said. He said the temperatures will continue to remain 2-5 degrees above normal in the north-western plains at least for the next two weeks, before a gradual decline towards normalcy.
Mohapatra said the weather office does not count November as a winter month. He said January and February are considered as winter months, while the hints of the cold weather are available in December.
In the southern peninsula, the north-east monsoon is expected to bring above normal rainfall in November in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe and south interior Karnataka.
"The above normal to normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except northwest India and some areas of central India," the weather office said. The delay in the onset of cold weather conditions could also be on account of the continued prevalence of the neutral El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The weather office said the probability forecast indicates a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing gradually during November-December. "ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) conditions are slowly evolving towards the negative side, and La Nina can set in by December," Mohapatra said, acknowledging that weather forecasting agencies worldwide have got their El Nino forecasts wrong this year.
In the winter months, the La Nina causes a very cold wave-like jet stream to flow across Afghanistan, Iran and the Hindu Kush mountains. These strong and cold winds impact the degree of cold in India.