The United States may never have imagined that Iran would respond with such ferocity
There is an ancient proverb about war that no matter who wins, ultimately it is the common man who suffers in reality. If an American missile killed Khamenei in Iran, a similar missile also claimed the lives of innocent children! When Iran carried out drone attacks on neighbouring countries, most of those killed or injured were innocent people. What crime had the ship workers committed that they were targeted? In reality, war does not distinguish between the guilty and the innocent. Its only objective is terror, destruction and death, which is something you all know.
Neither you nor I, nor our country India, are part of the war, yet we too are feeling its heat. Thousands of our people are stranded, some on ships while others in foreign countries. Crores of Indians live in the Middle East, or the Gulf region, and we are extremely worried about them. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, even a peaceful country like India faced shortage of cooking gas. However, politics is being played over the gas shortage too. I believe the government should make the situation absolutely clear and seek people’s cooperation. They must ensure the gas supply for roadside eateries or dhabas that serve food to the common man.
The United States has long operated by the doctrine of always winning at any cost. To understand this, one must go back nearly four decades. During the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (Shah of Iran), who was favoured by the United States, was overthrown and Ruhollah Khomeini came to power. He stripped Iranians of their human rights and freedom. Scientists, defence service members and other prominent figures from the Shah’s era were put to death. Only a few managed to escape. The following year, the United States supported the ruler of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, who then launched an attack on Iran. The United States supplied Iraq with abundant weapons and financial support. Yet during the eight-year war, Iraq could not defeat Iran. The reason? It was because Iran had been receiving assistance from Israel. And who stood behind Israel? Yes, the United States itself. You might wonder why the United States acted this way. In reality, its aim was to weaken both Iran and Iraq. In that war, millions of people were killed and it is alleged that chemical weapons were also used. The very Saddam Hussein whom the United States had once used as a proxy was later executed on the accusation that he had developed chemical weapons. Yet to this day, not even a trace of such weapons has ever been found in Iraq. But it all left the people of Iraq completely destroyed.Now consider Iran. After dropping the massive bunker buster bomb, Donald Trump himself claimed that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been destroyed. Later, talks were also held, but Trump wanted Iran to give up even its ballistic missiles. How can any country compromise its sovereignty in such a manner? Iran refused. After that, it had become almost certain that the United States would attack. However, before launching the strike, the United States did not appear to anticipate that Iran would retaliate by targeting the US military bases in the surrounding Gulf countries, potentially drawing the entire region into the conflict. There were even attacks near the international airport in Dubai. Dubai undeniably remains the economic hub of the world. Wealth from across the globe is parked here. The attack on Dubai has created a crisis on an international scale. Is this also some kind of a ploy? Now countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan are pressuring the United States to stop this war as soon as possible. But will Trump listen to them? Given Iran’s current aggressive posture, it has created fear across the region, and Iran appears to be gaining an advantage from this atmosphere of anxiety.
The question also arises that did America anticipate that even after the deaths of Khamenei and other Iranian leaders, Iran would still launch such attacks? It is difficult to say, but it is quite clear that Iran also has the backing of China and Russia. Iran’s missile programme largely operates with assistance from China, and with China’s strength behind it, Iran has little reason to hold back. After the US attack, China has not directly entered the conflict with weapons in support of Iran, but it continues to extend open assistance. The inexpensive missiles produced by Iran with Chinese support are forcing the United States to deploy its much more expensive weaponry to intercept them. Causing economic damage to the United States is seen as one of China’s major objectives. Satellite images of Iran’s retaliatory strikes on the US bases were released to the world by China itself, thereby embarrassing the United States. In fact, China seems to be enjoying the situation at America’s expense. Meanwhile, Russia has already warned the US about the danger of a third world war. The big question now is what will happen next in this war? Will the American objective of regime change in Iran be achieved? The US is highly skilled in aerial warfare, but history shows that governments are not overthrown merely through airstrikes.
The US military is extremely powerful, but geographically Iran is a country capable of continuing the fight for decades. As far as the possibility of a pro-democracy uprising is concerned, even if Ali Khamenei were to die, the fear created by Iran’s brutal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is so strong that such a revolt seems highly unlikely. The people of Iran are already living amid devastation. On one side, Khamenei’s loyalists are suppressing people on the ground, and on the other side, American missiles are taking lives from the sky. What can the ordinary citizen do in such a situation?The author is the chairman, Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha.