RBI MPC keeps rates steady, raises GDP projection, trims inflation forecast

New Delhi, Oct 1 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced comprehensive reform-oriented decisions after its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, which began on September 29, concluded on Wednesday.

Here are the key takeaways from the RBI MPC.

⦁ Maintaining a balanced approach that supports economic momentum while ensuring financial stability, the RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50 per cent.

⦁ Considering the momentum in domestic growth due to strong consumption, investments, and government spending, with supportive factors like a good monsoon, GST 2.0, better credit flow, the central bank revised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 upwards to 6.8 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent. India’s real GDP grew 7.8 per cent in Q1 FY 2025-26, up from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter, the fastest pace in seven quarters, led by strong investment and consumption.

⦁ RBI has lowered its CPI inflation forecast for FY 2025–26 to 2.6 per cent, down from 3.1 per cent. Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation declined for nine consecutive months to reach an 8-year low of 1.6 per cent in July 2025 before edging up to 2.1 per cent in August, remaining within the RBI inflation target range.

⦁ The RBI will initiate measures to facilitate wider use of the Indian Rupee and local currencies in international trade transactions. Authorised Dealer banks in India and their overseas branches may be permitted to lend in Indian currency to persons resident in Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

⦁ Amid global trade uncertainty, India’s merchandise exports rose 2.5 per cent (April–August 2025) while imports grew 2.1 per cent. Services exports continued double-digit growth, and Q1 FY 2025-26 real exports and imports of goods and services grew 6.3 per cent and 10.9 per cent, respectively.

⦁ The banks' governing body observed that during April-September of FY 2025-26 so far (up to September 26), Indian equity markets remained on an upward trajectory.

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