New Delhi [India], December 26 : Despite tariffs remaining in place, India's exports to the United States have shown a pickup since September, while sectors that were expected to be hit harder by tariffs have not underperformed as sharply as those considered relatively insulated, according to a data-based report by DSP Mutual Fund.
The data shows that India's exports to the US declined from USD 8.8 billion in May 2025 to a low of USD 5.4 billion in September 2025. Since then, exports have recovered to USD 6.3 billion in October and further to USD 7.0 billion in November.
However, the report noted that the data window is short, and it would be premature to call this a trend, but the improvement complicates the narrative that tariffs alone are driving the slowdown.
It stated, "exports to the U.S. have shown a pickup since September... it does complicate the straightforward narrative that tariffs alone are driving the slowdown."
Sector-wise data highlights that the impact of tariffs has not been neatly contained. Pharmaceuticals, which were exempted from tariffs, saw exports fall of 16.5 per cent between May and October 2025. Mobile phone exports declined sharply by 35.5 per cent during the same period.
Among sectors where the same tariff applied globally, iron and steel exports fell 18.4 per cent, while ferrous and non-ferrous metals declined 24.6 per cent.
In segments facing higher tariffs, textiles (excluding readymade garments) recorded an 18.5 per cent fall, and gems and jewellery exports dropped 27.3 per cent.
According to DSP Mutual Fund, sectors expected to bear the brunt of tariffs have not necessarily been the worst performers, suggesting that export weakness has been broader and not limited only to tariff-sensitive segments.
It stated, "Sectors that were expected to be hit harder by tariffs have not underperformed as sharply as those that were supposedly insulated."
The report added that more data will be required to assess whether the recent recovery in exports to the US is sustainable.
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