New Delhi [India], December 31 : India is well poised to remain the fastest-growing large economy in the world over the coming decades, with its Gross Domestic Product projected to reach USD 26 trillion in market exchange rate terms by 2047-48, according to EY's report 'India@100: Realizing the potential of a USD 26 trillion economy'.
The report also projected that India's per capita income would exceed USD 15,000 by 2047-48, placing it among the ranks of developed economies.
India celebrated the 75th anniversary of its Independence in 2022, a milestone that, EY noted, offers not only an opportunity to reflect on past achievements but also to articulate a long-term vision for the country's future.
The central government has set an ambitious goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047, the centenary year of the country's Independence.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had on various occasions described the next 25 years as "Amrit Kaal," a uniquely auspicious period representing India's opportunity to herald a new world era.
According to the EY report, India's growth prospects stand out sharply against a challenging global backdrop marked by high global debt, inflationary pressures, slowing population growth, and plateauing global trade.
"The enthusiasm for India's growth prospects is palpable given the slowing global growth buffeted by recent headwinds of unprecedentedly high levels of global debt to GDP, inflation, decelerating global population growth and plateauing global trade to GDP. These trends have been further exacerbated by rising protectionism amidst rising geopolitical tensions," the EY report read.
India has already attained critical mass as one of the top five largest economies in the world, a position realized primarily due to its policies of economic liberalization that made the economy more market-oriented, increased the role of private capital, and enhanced global competitiveness.
EY's analysis demonstrated that even while maintaining a stable yet modest growth rate averaging about 6 per cent per annum, India would reach a nominal GDP of USD 26 trillion by 2047-48.
Per capita income at this level would be nearly six times the current value.
A key pillar of this outlook is India's demographic dividend. India is home to approximately one-sixth of the global population and is expected to become the largest contributor to the global workforce for several decades.
About 67 per cent of India's population is currently of working age, and by 2030, India's working-age population is projected to exceed one billion.
This young demographic profile, combined with rising participation of women in education and the workforce, is expected to support productivity gains, domestic consumption, and long-term growth.
The report also highlighted the role of accelerated economic reforms over the last decade in fiscal policy, digital public infrastructure, physical infrastructure, and social inclusion. These reforms, together with the largest, broadest, and deepest labor pool among major economies, provide India with a long runway for productivity growth that outpaces wage growth, thereby enhancing global competitiveness.
Looking ahead to the centenary of India's Independence, EY concluded that India has the potential to become a strong and resilient pillar in the changing global economic order.
"India, indeed, has the potential and opportunity to become a strong and resilient pillar in the changing global economic order," the EY report read.
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