Nifty 50 seen scaling 30,000 in 2026 on bull-market correction & strong technical signals: Report

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], December 24 : The benchmark Nifty 50 index is likely to scale the 30,000 mark in calendar year 2026, supported by strong technical indicators and historical price behaviour, according to a research report by ICICI Direct.

It stated, "Nifty to head towards 30,000 in CY26 based on the implicated target of Cup & Handle pattern; historically, such breakouts garnered 40 per cent in subsequent 12-18 months," the report said, highlighting a key technical rationale for its bullish projection

It added that one of the key factors supporting this outlook is the implied target of a Cup & Handle pattern. Historically, such breakouts have delivered gains of around 40 per cent over the subsequent 12 to 18 months.

The report highlighted that similar technical formations in the past have led to sustained rallies once the pattern was confirmed.

Another important observation is that the price action since November 2021 has remained confined within a rising channel. According to the report, the upper band of this rising channel continues to act as a long-term directional guide, suggesting further upside potential as long as the broader structure remains intact.

The report also pointed out that rallies following bull market corrections of 15-20 per cent have historically generated gains of about 40 per cent over the next 12 to 18 months.

In line with this trend, the Nifty rebounded after a 17 per cent correction, so the report said it augurs well for a move towards 28,600 in the medium term and 30,000 thereafter.

On the downside, the report identified a key support level at 23,500. This level coincides with the lower band of the rising channel, the 61.8 per cent retracement of the April-December rally, and the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, rebounds from the 52-week EMA have been considered a positive signal for investors.

Additionally, market breadth indicators have approached their lower band, a development that has occurred only five times in the last 25 years. Historically, readings below 40 have marked important turning points, delivering double-digit average returns in the subsequent year.

The current reading of 35, according to the report, offers a contrarian opportunity and could lead to broad-based market participation in 2026.

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