Q4 FY25 GDP could be 6.4%-6.5%, GDP for FY 2025 to settle at 6.3%: SBI

New Delhi [India], May 21 : India's economy is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the current fiscal year, with GDP projected to settle at 6.3 per cent with Q4 FY25 growth at between 6.4 and 6.5 per cent, according to an SBI Research report. The report signals continued economic resilience amid evolving global and domestic challenges.

The SBI research adds that despite rising global uncertainties, including trade disruptions and policy volatility, India's economic momentum remains largely resilient.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), however, has projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25.

SBI report notes that the GDP growth projections in its report are based on its in-house nowcasting model using 36 high-frequency indicators. The model reflects a slight moderation in activity, with fewer indicators showing acceleration compared to the third quarter.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.

Domestic positive factors such as easing household inflation expectations and above-average monsoon forecasts support demand and agricultural growth prospects.

However, the report points out that the concerns such as dip in Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowing corporate GVA (Gross Value Added) and EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) margins, and weaker capex momentum across several states persist.

It added that while external risks are mounting, India's growth trajectory appears relatively stable, though cautious optimism is warranted in the short term, the report added.

It is to be noted that the March edition of the Monthly Economic Review of the Ministry of Finance added that the performance of the economy in the past quarters was driven by strong agricultural and service sector performance on the supply side and a steady increase in consumption and core merchandise and services exports on the demand side.

The Finance Ministry too has estimated that the Indian economy will achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds.

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