Vodafone Idea Shares Drop Ahead of Q3 Results; JM Financial Retains ‘Add’, Raises Target to ₹12.50

Vodafone Idea Ltd (NSE: IDEA) remains in focus ahead of its Q3FY26 earnings, amid brokerage optimism, institutional activity, and ongoing efforts to address legacy liabilities. Shares of the telecom operator traded at ₹11.68 on Monday, down 0.85%. JM Financial, in its telecom sector preview, maintained an ‘Add’ rating on Vodafone Idea and raised its target price to ₹12.50 from ₹11.50, citing gradual ARPU improvement despite continued subscriber churn.

For the December quarter, the brokerage expects largely flat performance on a sequential basis. Net subscriber losses of around 35 lakh are likely to offset modest ARPU growth of 1.1% QoQ to ₹169, even as the company adds about 5 lakh mobile broadband subscribers. Revenue is seen remaining flat at around ₹11,200 crore, while reported EBITDA is expected at ₹4,700 crore, also flat QoQ. Pre-Ind AS (cash) EBITDA is projected to inch up marginally to ₹2,260 crore. Net loss for the quarter is estimated at ₹6,986 crore.

Adding to the stock’s action, Vodafone Idea witnessed a block deal on the NSE worth ₹16.60 crore, involving 1.38 crore shares traded at ₹12.01 apiece. The transaction points to notable institutional participation and reflects continued investor interest despite the company’s challenging fundamentals.

Separately, Vodafone Idea’s promoters have taken steps to resolve legacy dues linked to the 2017 Vodafone India–Idea Cellular merger. Promoter entities have earmarked 3.28 billion equity shares worth ₹3,529 crore, representing about 3.03% of the company’s total equity, to clear outstanding liabilities. Three Vodafone Group promoter entities are part of this arrangement, providing a structured pathway to address past obligations.

Going ahead, analysts caution that volatility is likely to remain high. Vodafone Idea’s long-term prospects hinge on its ability to secure fresh capital expenditure funding, stabilise subscriber losses, and regain market share, amid intense competition from financially stronger rivals. While recent government measures offer interim relief, the company’s heavy debt burden continues to be a key overhang on growth and investment plans.