ADB cuts growth forecast of Bangladesh to 4.7 pc amid weak exports, investments

New Delhi, Dec 16 For the second time this year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its growth forecast for Bangladesh, citing stagnation in investment ahead of national elections and slower export earnings growth, a report said on Tuesday.

ADB said gross domestic product growth in the current fiscal year (FY2025‑26) may reach 4.7 per cent, down from its September forecast of 5 per cent and April’s projection of 5.1 per cent, the report from The Daily Star said.

“The lower forecast reflects weaker‑than‑expected export performance and greater investment uncertainty due to the upcoming national elections in February,” the lender noted in its report.

Exports grew just 0.62 per cent in July‑November FY26, compared with 11.76 per cent the corresponding period a year earlier, according to the data from Export Promotion Bureau.

A major strike at Chattogram Port in October, which handles more than 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s trade, led to export slowdown when compounded with subdued global demand, the report from the Bangladesh-based media house said.

Private sector credit growth slowed to 6.23 per cent in October from 6.29 per cent in September, the weakest pace in two decades, reflecting high borrowing costs, political uncertainty and weak consumer demand.

The government has lowered its FY26 export growth target to 9 per cent from 10 per cent and reduced the GDP growth target by 50 bps to 5 per cent.

In October, the International Monetary Fund projected 4.9 per cent growth in FY26 for Bangladesh, while the World Bank forecasted 4.8 per cent growth. ADB’s report also revised India’s growth forecast upward for this year and said outlooks for Pakistan and Sri Lanka have improved for 2025 and 2026.

Bangladesh is facing serious problems in maintaining its trade relations with the world’s major economies due to the policy mistakes of the Muhammad Yunus-headed interim government, a report earlier this month said.

Observers say Bangladesh initially appeared to strengthen ties with its largest trade partner, China, after the July political shift. However, after reaching agreements on trade with the United States, China has turned cautious in its trade relations with Bangladesh.

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