Geneva [Switzerland], May 28 : The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning in its latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025-2029, predicting that global temperatures will continue to soar over the next five years.
The report highlights an 80% likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass the warmest year on record (currently 2024), with temperatures expected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C higher than the pre-industrial average. The forecast also suggests a 70% chance that the five-year average warming will exceed 1.5°C.
In a press release on Wednesday, the WMO said, "The World Meteorological Organization Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development."
It added, "The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level."
According to the report, there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C. This is up from 47% in last year's report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period. Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
The report further said that in recent years, apart from 2023, the South Asian region has been anomalously wet, and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the WMO. It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.
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