Gaziantep, Jan 28 As Syria shows signs of recovery from its 13-year civil war, the gradual return of Syrian refugees from Turkey is raising fears of labour shortages in key Turkish sectors reliant on low-wage workers, industry representatives and analysts say.
"Syrian workers constitute about 20-25 per cent of our workers at this stage; their massive return could definitely have consequences," Beyhan Duran, a managing agent from a livestock farm in the southern Gaziantep province, told Xinhua.
Duran said this could be a game-changer for Turkish businesses reliant on the Syrian workforce. Although only a small number of Syrians have returned so far, he expects the majority will eventually leave as conditions stabilise in Syria, Xinhua news agency reported.
Gaziantep, a major Turkish city near the Syrian border, has long been dependent on the presence of approximately 450,000 Syrians.
Metin Corabatir, director of the Ankara-based Research Center on Asylum and Migration, estimates that there are around 1 million Syrians active in the Turkish labour market, primarily in low-skilled and low-paid informal jobs.
Following recent developments, thousands of the three million Syrian refugees have returned home, with others still contemplating their next move, especially after the winter.
Corabatir said that most of the returnees are seemingly assessing the conditions in Syria, which remains devastated by 13 years of civil war, before deciding whether to bring their families back.
The shift could ease financial pressures on Turkey, which has spent $40 billion on refugee support despite EU aid. However, sectors like agriculture and textiles may struggle to fill gaps. "Employers rely on Syrians for cheap labour. A sudden exit would create problems," said Osman Ahmed, a 33-year-old Syrian telecom worker in Gaziantep. He added that Turkey's economic woes, including soaring rents, are pushing some refugees to leave while others stay for stable jobs.
"Some Syrian businesses could also relocate their operations back to Syria," he added.
Still, industry leaders downplay immediate risks. Adnan Unverdi, head of Gaziantep's Chamber of Industry, said any transition would be gradual.
"Their return is expected to be as gradual as their arrival. We do not expect all to return. Even if 70 per cent leave, the remaining 30 per cent are expected to stay," he told the country's Daily Sabah in a recent interview.
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