Ukraine war redraws defence supply chains, brings India into strategic discussion

Washington, Dec 13 European allies are moving beyond emergency military aid to Ukraine toward long-term defence industrial partnerships as Russia’s war grinds on, a shift that is also prompting efforts to diversify global supply chains away from China, with India cited as part of that discussion, officials and experts said here.

Testifying before the US Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, speakers on Thursday highlighted the “Danish model,” an approach pioneered by Denmark that channels foreign funding directly into Ukraine’s defence industry rather than relying mainly on stockpile donations or third-country purchases.

“From a Danish perspective, strengthening our own defence and supporting Ukraine is not mutually exclusive, but part of the same solution to strengthen European defence and security,” said Major General Karsten F. Jensen, Danish Defence Attaché to the United States.

Jensen said the model allows donors to fund Ukrainian manufacturers based on battlefield needs. “Through the model, Denmark donates directly to the Ukrainian defence industry instead of relying solely on purchasing military equipment from third countries or donating from national stockpiles,” he said.

He said a pilot project delivered 18 artillery systems ordered in July 2024, with “all pieces… battle ready in September the same year.” Denmark provided about $627 million through the model in 2024, with support expected to reach close to $2 billion in 2025.

European defence policy expert Sophia Besch said Europe is shifting from crisis response to strategy. “What began in 2022 as a set of reactive crisis instruments is now starting to evolve into something more strategic,” she said. “A capable and rearmed Ukraine is Europe’s first line of defence and strengthens deterrence against Russia.”

Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former adviser to the Ukrainian government, said Ukraine’s defence industry has expanded rapidly but lacks funding. “Ukraine’s annual defence production capacity skyrocketed from about one billion in 2022 to over 35 billion by mid-2025,” she said, adding that in early 2024 Kyiv could afford to buy only $6 billion worth of equipment.

Bondar said the war has exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, especially dependence on China. “Russians and Ukrainians are eating from the same bucket,” she said, referring to shared reliance on Chinese components, particularly for drones. Efforts are now under way to diversify sourcing, “including India,” she said.

She also warned that rivals are studying the conflict closely. “China is learning from Russia,” Bondar said, adding that “Putin went to India just recently and established military collaboration with India.”

Witnesses said defence industrial cooperation is central to sustaining Ukraine and shaping any future peace. “Industrial cooperation is a foundation for any sustainable peace,” Besch said, arguing that credible deterrence depends on scalable and predictable production.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has forced NATO allies to rethink defence spending, industrial capacity and supply chain resilience, with Ukraine increasingly viewed as a forward line of European defence.

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