Mumbai South Lok Sabha Election 2024: Rich Constituency, Poor Voter Turnout; Who does It Benefit?

South Mumbai, often recognized as one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country, showed surprisingly low voter turnout on Monday. Less than half of the registered voters participated in the election to choose their Member of Parliament. This decline in voter turnout compared to the last general election has raised eyebrows in political circles.

The question arises: what message are the educated and aware voters of this constituency trying to convey through their low participation? In 2019, the voter turnout was 50.97%, and it was anticipated that this figure would increase this year. However, only 50.06% of voters cast their ballots this time. Out of the 1,532,226 registered voters, the turnout was significantly lower in all assembly segments compared to the 2019 general election. While other constituencies experienced confusion over various issues, South Mumbai saw relatively less chaos but still recorded lower voter turnout.

Guardian Minister Mangalprabhat Lodha and Legislative Assembly Speaker Rahul Narvekar's assembly constituencies fall within this parliamentary area. In Lodha’s Malabar Hill constituency, the turnout was 51.77%, which, although high, was a drop from 2019. Narvekar’s Colaba constituency saw the lowest turnout at 43.68%, even lower than the previous election.

Several factors contributed to the low turnout: summer vacations, a three-day holiday streak preceding the voting day, voter apathy, obstacles in the voting process, and the heat. The turnout in Aditya Thackeray's Worli constituency was expected to rise but instead fell. Similarly, Mahayuti candidate Yamini Jadhav's Byculla constituency also saw a decrease in voter turnout.

The election saw a direct contest between Arvind Sawant of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Yamini Jadhav of the Mahayuti alliance. Both sides conducted extensive campaigns with senior leaders. Despite efforts by the Election Commission and its staff over the past three to four months to increase voter turnout, the percentage not only failed to rise but actually declined.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena's Impact

For the first time, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) publicly supported the Mahayuti. The MNS has a substantial vote bank in this constituency, having contested elections here previously with considerable success.

Although both candidates are Marathi, potentially splitting the Marathi vote, the distribution of MNS votes remains crucial.

Given the changed political dynamics, it was anticipated that the predominantly Muslim constituencies would lean towards the MVA. The BJP made significant efforts to secure a victory for the Mahayuti candidate, while the extent of support for the MVA candidate from Congress-aligned voters will only be clear on the results day.

Voting Breakdown by Assembly Constituency

The table above shows the voter turnout in various assembly constituencies, reflecting a general decline from the 2019 figures.