Kerala: Latest exit poll signals UDF surge, Left's unseating after a decade

Thiruvananthapuram, May 1 Kerala stands on the cusp of a potentially decisive political shift, as yet another exit poll that was published on Friday joins the several others in overwhelmingly predicting a return to power for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

The latest survey by 'Marunadan Malayali' reinforces this trend, indicating a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

Based on an assessment across all 140 Assembly constituencies, the survey projects the UDF to secure between 80 and 99 seats, well above the simple majority mark.

In contrast, the LDF is expected to be reduced to a range of 37 to 57 seats, marking a sharp reversal from its dominant performance in the 2021 elections.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also likely to make modest gains, with projections of 2 to 4 seats, potentially opening its account again in the Assembly.

The UDF’s projected surge is attributed to the consolidation of community votes alongside a visible shift among neutral voters.

The front is expected to dominate key districts such as Malappuram, Ernakulam, Wayanad, and Idukki, with near sweeps predicted in these regions.

It is also set to make significant inroads in central and southern districts, including Kottayam, Alappuzha, and Pathanamthitta.

For the LDF, the outlook appears challenging even in traditional strongholds.

Except for a marginal edge in Kannur, the Left is facing erosion across north and central Kerala.

The survey suggests that the ruling front may struggle to retain its footing in several districts, reflecting the depth of voter dissatisfaction.

A notable feature of this election is the BJP’s incremental rise, particularly in parts of Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, and Palakkad.

The NDA is expected to be competitive in a few constituencies, with possible wins in Nemom and Kazhakoottam, indicating a gradual expansion of its base.

Despite the broad trends, the outcome in 21 constituencies remains too close to call, with intense multi-cornered contests keeping both fronts on edge.

Even if the LDF performs well in these battleground seats, the projections suggest it may still fall short of a majority.

The broader narrative emerging from the exit polls is one of a shifting political tide.

Discontent in coastal and agrarian regions, coupled with a split in youth votes between the UDF and NDA, appears to have weakened the LDF’s prospects.

Additionally, indications of setbacks for several senior ministers are also going to be a setback for the Left.

While the UDF camp has drawn confidence from the projections, the LDF has cautioned against reading too much into exit polls, maintaining that the final verdict will only emerge on counting day.

As Kerala awaits the opening of ballot boxes, the stage is set for a high-stakes political verdict that could reshape the state’s power landscape.

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