The first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha election concluded on Friday, marking the beginning of a seven-phase electoral process across India. With 102 seats in 21 states and Union Territories having undergone polling, the initial phase recorded a notable decline in voter turnout compared to previous elections. As of Saturday morning, the overall turnout stood at approximately 64%, with the Election Commission of India still updating the figures. Presently, it appears unlikely that these numbers will see a significant rise.
In contrast, the first phase of the 2019 election had witnessed a 69.58% voter turnout, while the turnout in the corresponding phase of the 2014 election was 68.77%. The current figures depict a drop of nearly 4-5% in voter participation compared to the last two elections. This decline is particularly evident in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra.
A comparative analysis of voter turnout in selected states between the 2019 and current elections reveals a clear pattern of decline. However, states such as Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, and Jammu and Kashmir have shown improvement in voter turnout compared to the previous election cycle.
Following the completion of polling in the first phase, analysts and enthusiasts alike find themselves pondering the implications of the lower turnout for the election's outcome and the subsequent phases. What does the fluctuation in voter turnout signify, and what can the current numbers indicate?
To gain insights, it's essential to delve into the history of India's electoral democracy. Since the inception of the general election to the first Lok Sabha in 1951-52, voter turnout has fluctuated in subsequent elections.
Out of the 17 Lok Sabha elections held between 1951-52 and 2019, the voter turnout decreased six times and increased ten times, excluding the inaugural election. Among these, incumbent governments have maintained continuity eight times and been replaced eight times.
In instances of increased turnout (where the government was repeated 60% of the time), the incumbent lost four times and emerged victorious six times.
For elections marked by decreased turnout (with the government repeated 33% of the time), the incumbent lost four times and secured victory twice.
While there's no definitive method to predict election results based solely on voter turnout, a preliminary analysis suggests that decreased turnout has correlated with the loss of the incumbent government 73% of the time, whereas increased turnout has resulted in the reelection of the incumbent government 60% of the time.