Patna, Nov 12 After the completion of the second phase of polling for the Bihar Assembly elections, survey agency Polstrat has projected a clear advantage for the NDA led by the BJP and JD(U).
The post-poll survey has forecast victories for most prominent leaders across major constituencies, suggesting that key political heavyweights are likely to retain their seats.
According to the agency, in Tarapur (Munger district), Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary (BJP) is projected to win against RJD’s Arun Kumar Sah, despite a quadrangular contest that includes Jan Suraj’s Santosh Kumar Singh and JJD’s Sukhdev Yadav.
In Raghopur (Vaishali) — a Yadav family bastion — RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is predicted to win against NDA’s Satish Yadav, with Jan Suraj’s Chanchal Kumar emerging as a distant third.
The high-profile Mokama (Patna district) seat, in the spotlight after the Dularchand Yadav murder case and Anant Singh’s arrest, is expected to go in favour of JDU’s Anant Singh, who faces RJD’s Veena Devi in a high-stakes contest.
In Alinagar (Darbhanga), popular folk singer Maithili Thakur (BJP), making her electoral debut, is predicted to defeat RJD’s Vinod Mishra, with her strong fan base in Mithilanchal playing a decisive role.
In Chhapra (Saran district), where Bhojpuri actor Khesari Lal Yadav (RJD) is contesting against BJP’s Chhoti Kumari and Independent Rakhi Gupta, the survey suggests Khesari Lal Yadav is likely to lose, giving the BJP an edge.
At Lakhisarai, Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha (BJP) is projected to win against Congress candidate Amresh Kumar.
Similarly, in Begusarai, a BJP stronghold, Kundan Kumar (BJP) is likely to retain the seat against Congress’s Amita Bhushan.
In Bakipur (Patna), Nitin Naveen (BJP) is expected to secure another victory against RJD’s Rekha Gupta, as per POLSTRAT’s findings.
However, the survey also indicates possible setbacks for some NDA leaders.
In Imamganj (Gaya district), HAM(S) candidate Deepa Manjhi, daughter-in-law of Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, is projected to lose to the RJD candidate, despite the constituency being considered a Manjhi stronghold.
In Bipsi (Madhubani), BJP firebrand MLA Haribhushan Thakur Bachaul is trailing behind the RJD candidate, while in Bhagalpur, Congress leader Ajit Sharma, a former CLP chief, is also expected to lose to the BJP candidate.
In Mahua (Vaishali), Tej Pratap Yadav, president of the Janshakti Janata Dal, is predicted to win against RJD’s Mukesh Kumar Roshan. Other contenders in Mahua include Sanjay Kumar Singh (LJP–RV), Indrajit Pradhan (Jan Suraj), and Rimjhim Devi (BSP).
The NDA is likely to win 133 seats, while the Grand Alliance may secure 87 seats.
The survey also predicts that AIMIM could win 2 seats, the Janshakti Janata Dal (JJD) 1 seat, and independent candidates 1 seat, while 19 constituencies are expected to witness a neck-and-neck contest.
Within the NDA, the BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party with 69 seats, followed by JD(U) with 56 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), led by Chirag Paswan, is expected to win 5 seats, while HAM(S) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) may get 2 seats each.
In the Grand Alliance, the RJD is projected to win 65 seats, followed by CPI-ML (10), Congress (9), CPI(M) (1), and VIP (1).
The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, and counting of votes will take place on November 14.
Overall, Polstrat’s assessment suggests that the NDA remains in a strong position statewide, with most of its key leaders expected to retain their seats, while select high-profile opposition figures may suffer losses.
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