The Omicron threat!

Dr Ajit Bhagwat

The Omicron strain of Covid19 has inflicted a lot of fear and anxiety across the world. And rightly so! The mayhem that the world experienced during the first two waves has pushed every country to be extremely cautious about dealing with this new potential threat. What have we learnt so far from our experience with Omicron? Can India predict the events in near future?

The first case of Omicron was reported from South Africa (SA) in early November! Since then, it is rapidly replacing the older delta variant and the cases are increasing exponentially in the western world.

1. The genomic sequencing in India is restricted to the cases with some connection to foreign travel. Over 600 cases have been detected so far. About 50 of the last 64 cases of Omicron had no foreign travel or exposure indicating its possible community spread. At the time of writing this, not a single death has been reported in India by Omicron.

2. Over 95% cases of Covid infection in New York city and 85% world over at present are due to Omicron variant.

3. The clinical course of Omicron is milder than the delta variant with loss of taste and smell being less common and low back pain being a more common symptom. However, some experts from the UK have warned not to take Omicron lightly as its clinical behaviour could change over time for the worse.

4. Some experts believe that all major pandemics end with milder mutations like Omicron which act as a natural vaccine to immunise the population against the parent virus. If true, that is great news!

5. The SA fourth wave was entirely due to Omicron variant and has seen a precipitous decline within two weeks. Such a short period of rising cases followed by rapid decline has been heartening and wasn’t seen during the first three waves. It will be interesting to see if the virus repeats similar pattern in other parts of the world.

6. The vaccinated and unvaccinated population is affected in similar proportion, however hospitalisation has been more frequent in unvaccinated population highlighting the positive role of previous vaccination.

7. Assuming that the Omicron variant has dominated and spread in the UK and SA widely over the month of December, the comparison of new cases and deaths between the first and last week of December reveals interesting facts. While there has been a 103% (UK) to over 300 % (SA) rise in the number of new Covid cases per million population, the mortality (death rate) has seen a marginal reduction in the UK and only about 25% increase in SA. This difference between the death rates in UK and SA can probably be explained on the basis of better vaccination of the UK population.

The overall news about Omicron variant is better than its predecessor. Let us keep our fingers crossed and continue to follow the use of masks and social distancing!

(The writer is Director, Cardiac Cath Lab and Interventional Cardiology Kamalnayan Bajaj Hospital, Aurangabad).