New Delhi [India], September 15 : By 2050, natural gas will be the only fossil fuel to see an increase in the energy mix of the United States, China, and India, even as coal and oil decline globally, according to a sector update by Nuvama Institutional Equities, citing S&P Global Commodity Insights.
'By 2050, gas shall be the only fossil fuel with a potential increase in the energy mix for the US, China, and India," noted the report
The report noted that despite the sharp rise in renewable energy capacity worldwide, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy basket in major economies. Renewables are expected to rise from 4 per cent currently to around 20 per cent by 2050, while fossil fuels will still account for more than 50 per cent.
"India's energy mix in 2024 is dominated by fossil fuels (77 per cent) with renewables at just 2 per cent; by 2050 though, fossil fuels are projected to drop to 66 per cent and renewables to rise to 16 per cent." noted the report
However, the report underlined that gas will emerge as a "transition fuel", offering flexibility and cleaner alternatives to coal.
"In the US, Europe and Southeast Asia, coal-to-gas substitution has been a favourable transition, while India has lagged in leveraging gas in the power sector." highlighted the report.
The study also flagged that scalability and commercial challenges limit a direct coal-to-renewable shift, making natural gas a critical bridge in the path to net zero.
The report, however, highlighted that many government initiatives like targeted LPG subsidies and PAHAL are helping in the transition towards gas for cooking.
"The category of 'other energy sources', essentially traditional biomass (cooking), is declining sharplybeing replaced by LPG. Government schemes such as 'PAHAL' and targeted LPG subsidies have driven this shift, leading to a reduction from 38 per cent to 19 per cent with expected further decline," highlighted the report
India's structural ambitions, such as the National Hydrogen Mission and recent GST reductions to support renewable adoption, signal intent. Yet, without systemic flexibility, gas market reforms, and scaled-up storage capacity, the likelihood of falling short of emission reduction targets remains high.
The report noted that gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, could play a balancing role if supported through tax and pricing reforms. Without such measures, India risks missing both its near-term and long-term climate ambitions, even as it pursues the 2070 net-zero target.
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