New Delhi [India], July 30 : In 2025, prediction markets are gaining momentum in the United States, driven by strategic partnerships, regulatory clarity, and significant fundraising rounds led by some of Silicon Valley's most prominent investors. Recently, prediction market platforms have entered into partnerships with both legacy and social media outlets.
Within just two monthsJune and JulyAmerica's two leading prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, announced strategic collaborations with Elon Musk's X platform, a move expected to provide these platforms with enhanced distribution.
xAI confirmed its partnership with Kalshi through a post on July 24, stating, "Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets." The post further added, "Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team."
On the regulatory front, the tide appears to be turning in the United States. Polymarket, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is now open to American traders following its strategic acquisition of a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, QCEX, for USD 112 million.
Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, posted on July 21 about the acquisition, saying, "Owning a DCM [Designated Contract Maker] and DCO [Derivative Clearing House] will let us serve all American traders and brokerages." Coplan added, "This acquisition isn't just about a license; its Polymarket's homecoming returning stronger and ready to serve American users once again."
Closer to Asia, India has a vibrant prediction market industry, also referred to as opinion trading. Despite regulatory ambiguity, Probo, the country's largest opinion trading platform with over 50 million registered users, enables trading across a wide range of event contracts.
"Beyond cricket, we are seeing increasing user traction in categories including economy, world sports and news. Every user trades in two categories on an average," said a Probo spokesperson.
Like its global counterparts, Probo has raised capital from a notable lineup of investors, including Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia Capital India), Fundamentum Partnerships, and Elevation Capital, highlighting the significant growth potential of prediction markets in India.
Commenting on the Indian market and regulatory landscape, Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner at Evam Law & Policy, said, "Opinion trading is gaining remarkable traction in India, with homegrown platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio at the forefront. This sector is projected to drive 30-35% of both direct and indirect job creation while contributing significantly to economic growth. With progressive regulation, we anticipate this job creation potential to multiply exponentially as the market matures. This segment currently employs over 10,000 individuals directly and indirectly."
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