Russian crude helps cap global oil prices amid global supply disruption, says International Oil Analyst

By Nikhil Dedha

Singapore, April 20 : Russian crude oil is emerging as a key factor in containing global oil prices amid ongoing supply disruptions triggered by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, said June Goh, Senior Oil Market Analyst, Sparta Commodities.

In an exclusive conversation withon the recent developments in the crude market amid disruptions due to West Asia crisis, Goh stated that "Certainly having Russian oil supply for those floating barrels in the market is keeping a bit of a ceiling to the market right now," the expert said, highlighting the role of Russian crude in stabilising prices even as global supply remains tight.

The global oil market is currently facing a major disruption, with around 10 to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil effectively removed from global balances due to production shut-ins and logistical constraints amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a tightening of supply, even as geopolitical tensions continue to impact flows.

The analyst noted that India has been among the largest buyers of Russian crude. The expert added that recent developments have further supported the availability of Russian supplies.

She further added, "We have seen for example, India taking the most amount of Russian crude oil plus also there's also now sanctions waiver extension for cargoes loading up to the 17th of April and the transactions can last until now the May 16th so that will help a lot in the market. We are now also seeing Malaysia stepping up and saying they're going to talk to Russia for some oil. Philippines have already secured their first cargo a few weeks ago and I expect more to come as Asian refineries need to find good alternatives for the medium sour crude they have lost from the Arabian Gulf".

The shift comes as Asian economies face the brunt of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supplies. With the limited availability of medium sour crude from the Arabian Gulf, refiners are increasingly turning to alternative sources.

Beyond supply issues, the rising freight and insurance costs are also adding to oil market pressures.

The analyst also shared that shipping rates had already been increasing before the crisis and have surged further amid the conflict. Insurance costs, especially war risk premiums, have also risen sharply, increasing the delivered cost of crude to end users.

The expert also highlighted a widening gap between benchmark prices and actual delivered costs. Physical premiums on crude have surged significantly, with "that premium has gone up to plus USD 20, plus USD 30 per barrel," reflecting tight supply conditions in the physical market.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains uncertain with risks tilted to the upside. Crude prices are currently around USD 95 per barrel and are likely to stay elevated. The expert noted that even if geopolitical tensions ease, supply recovery could take time due to infrastructure damage, tanker repositioning and delays in restarting production.

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