New Delhi, Jan 5 Crude oil prices are projected to soften significantly to touch around $50 per barrel (bbl) by June 2026, positively affecting the CPI inflation, keeping it decisively below 3.4 per cent in the next fiscal (FY27), an SBI Research report said on Monday.
Benign energy prices will impact the GDP outlook favourably, and the expected impact on annual GDP growth is around 10-15 bps, according to the report authored by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India (SBI).
The US Energy Information Administration estimates that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, largely driven by the buildup of inventory.
Since the India basket has a correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, the trends in Brent suggest further softening of the Indian basket.
A moving average analysis for Indian crude shows that current prices are trending "below the 50 and 200 period moving averages", suggesting future lower levels from the current level at $62.20 per bbl.
"An autoregressive quantile forecast for the Indian basket indicates that the 50th percentile forecast by March 2026 is $53.31 and $51.85 by June 2026," Dr Ghosh added.
The expected fall in Indian basket price to $53.31 per barrel due to the dynamic daily pricing mechanism will be transmitted to fuel station prices.
Based on the historical average correlation between prices observed in four metro cities, at 0.48, the fuel component of the CPI basket may see further moderation.
"The expected 14 per cent correction in India Basket in Q4 FY26 is expected to put downward pressure of 22 bps on CPI basket, assuming 48 per cent passthrough. This could average CPI inflation for FY27 decisively below 3.4 per cent," the SBI report forecast.
Analysis using recent history suggests that assuming the USD/INR base price is Rs 90.28, the 14 per cent expected correction may result in 3 per cent appreciation in the rupee, which is approximately Rs 87.5 per dollar, and a part of this could play out in Q4 FY26, the report projected.
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