Kabul, Dec 29 The Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict exposes the limits of China's diplomatic ceiling -- effective in financing infrastructure, sustaining political partnerships, and providing strategic cover to allied governments, but constrained when conflict management requires confronting allies, engaging fragmented actors, or dealing with nationalist politics resistant to "transactional solutions", a report said on Monday.
It added that unless China reconsiders the assumptions guiding its regional diplomacy — moving beyond quiet mediation and the belief that economic incentives alone can resolve political conflicts — it may remain an influential regional actor, but unlikely to become a stabilising force as expected by many.
"Renewed violence along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border in recent months has underscored not only the fragility of relations between Kabul and Islamabad, but also the constraints facing China's role as a regional diplomatic actor. Exchanges of fire near major crossings, Pakistan's airstrikes that resulted in civilian casualties inside Afghanistan, Kabul's retaliatory responses, and repeated border closures mark a departure from the sporadic incidents of previous years. What has emerged instead is a more entrenched cycle of escalation, with both sides attempting to assert red lines along the disputed Durand Line," a report in Afghanistan's leading news agency Khaama Press Agency detailed.
"At the core of this confrontation lies a structural impasse that has resisted external mediation. Pakistan continues to demand that the Taliban authorities take decisive action against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad says operates from Afghan territory. The Taliban, for their part, have either been unwilling or unable to meet the scale of enforcement Pakistan seeks. Any large-scale crackdown risks internal fragmentation within the Taliban, whose cohesion depends on a delicate balance among competing factions," it added.
According to the report, with economic and strategic interests, such as the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and emerging mining and connectivity projects in Afghanistan, sustained instability along the border poses a direct concern for Beijing. While China has both access to key decision-makers and incentives to encourage de-escalation, in practice, Beijing's influence has remained largely limited.
"Beijing's response has largely followed a familiar pattern: calls for restraint, dialogue, and consultation among neighbouring states, coupled with expressions of readiness to play a 'constructive role' if requested. Yet China has not initiated or led a substantive trilateral mechanism capable of addressing the underlying drivers of the crisis. Its preference for quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy has not altered the strategic calculations of either Kabul or Islamabad. Violence has persisted, grievances have deepened, and China’s engagement has remained largely declaratory rather than transformative," the report noted.
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