Taipei [Taiwan] May 7 : A recent study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) sheds light on what has long been feared regarding Beijing's invasion strategy and emphasises the vital role that Taiwan's ports could play. The ASPI study indicates that if China were to act on its longstanding threats to invade Taiwan, its ground forces would heavily rely on capturing the island's crucial port facilities, as Taiwan's beaches are ill-suited for large-scale military landings due to limited infrastructure and susceptibility to defensive gunfire.
The report emphasises that despite China revealing its enhanced beach landing barges unexpectedly, Taiwan's 14 viable beaches are naturally designed as "kill zones," underscoring the strategic importance of ports. Defence analyst Ian Easton noted that the success or failure of any invasion would likely depend on whether Chinese amphibious landing forces can capture, maintain, and utilise the island's significant port facilities, as quoted by ASPI.
Despite this, Taiwan's most significant defensive advantage might be in sea mines rather than in heavy weaponry. These cost-effective, hard-to-detect arms could potentially deter, stall, or severely disrupt a Chinese amphibious invasion if employed in a timely manner. Nonetheless, Taiwan currently has only four specialised Min Jiang-class minelayers, with an additional ten still years away from being operational, according to ASPI.
The ASPI study points out China's aggressive stance and its readiness to accept substantial casualties to achieve its political objectives. "If you are willing to incur significant losses, you can breach the minefield and push through, accepting all losses of personnel and equipment," stated retired Royal Navy captain Chris O'Flaherty, stressing the potentially reckless strategy of Beijing.
While U.S. assistance could enhance Taiwan's capabilities through submarines and stealth bombers equipped to lay mines, Taipei cannot depend exclusively on Washington, especially under the unpredictable leadership of former President Donald Trump.
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