High expectations for India–US relations under Trump have dissipated: Joshua White

Washington, Jan 11 High expectations for India–US relations under President Donald Trump have dissipated, with enthusiasm and sustained political investment sharply reduced compared with recent years, according to Joshua T. White, a former White House official and leading South Asia expert.

“It’s pretty clear that we’re in a bad place,” White said, pointing to high expectations at the start of President Donald Trump’s term that have since dissipated. He said there were “high hopes for the relationship, when Trump came into office,” rooted in Trump’s earlier rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the presence of officials seen as supportive of closer ties.

That optimism, White said, faded in the spring and summer of 2025. “The relationship seems to have jumped the rails,” he said, adding that while he did not see reason “to be completely pessimistic,” there is now “much more skepticism, and perhaps realism, both in the United States and in India about the future trajectory of this relationship.”

White noted that some cooperation has continued. “The fact that some areas have continued relatively apace — the defense, and some of the technology, and some of the commercial relationships have continued,” he said. But he added that the level of political attention has dropped markedly. Compared with the Biden years, he said, when there was “a significant outlay of time and investment,” that focus “seems to have changed dramatically.”

Asked why the shift occurred, White cited a mix of personal, political, and structural factors. “I think part of it cannot be separated from President Trump himself,” he said, pointing to Trump’s reaction after the May India-Pakistan conflict and his perception that India did not respond with sufficient gratitude. He also said Pakistan’s leadership “clearly saw an opportunity and an opening to court President Trump,” while India “for both personal and political reasons” chose not to.

White said there was also a longer-standing debate in Washington over what the United States gains from the partnership. “Part of that is a simple question, what is the US getting from the US-India relationship?” he said, noting commercial and people-to-people ties, but raising concerns about India’s capacity as a long-term security partner.

“India has frankly struggled to even defend its own borders and its own maritime areas,” he said, adding that this has led to questions about whether India “could be a real and valuable security provider in its neighborhood.”

The result, White said, is growing doubt in Washington about the long-term value of the partnership. “I think (it has) caused many people in Washington to question how worthwhile it is to build a sustained relationship with India over the long term,” he said.

Immigration policies under Trump, White said, also eroded trust. He cited “the very real perception that Indian Americans have added a very significant value to the American economy and the American project,” and said these policies undermined confidence built over time.

White said the relationship has clearly regressed. “I think there’s no question the relationship has taken some steps back,” he said, adding that Indian leaders would be “naturally cautious about placing too much trust in the consistency of the United States as a partner.”

Looking ahead, White cautioned against predictions. “Prediction during the Trump administration is a very dangerous game,” he said. He suggested Trump could seek a deal to claim credit, possibly involving trade and tariffs, but warned that deeper trust has been damaged.

“There’s a real risk” of atrophy, White said, arguing that building partnerships requires sustained senior-level attention. He said it was “quite plausible” that even if rhetoric improves, the administration “doesn’t put in significant energy to building the relationship.”

On India’s ties with Russia and China, White said US concerns about Moscow were largely understood and manageable. A “substantive rapprochement” with China, however, “would be very worrying to the United States,” though he judged that outcome unlikely.

Dr. White previously served at the White House as Senior Advisor and Director for South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, where he staffed President Barack Obama and the National Security Advisor on the full range of South Asia policy issues pertaining to India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Indian subcontinent.

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